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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 06 2013
Keep an eye on the oil market after Chavez's death
FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Following the breaking news of Venezuela's president Hugo Chavez death, which has no direct impact on the currency market, traders should, nevertheless, keep an eye on the Oil market, as it may produce some volatility. Venezuelan Vice President Mr. Maduro is expected to win the elections and become Chavez's successor. There was some incendiary comments from Maduro after the announcement of Chavez's death, which Reuters reports: ”We have no doubt that commander Chavez was attacked with this illness,” Maduro said, repeating a charge first made by Chavez himself that the cancer was an attack by “imperialist” foes in the United States in league with domestic enemies.
"This report should be bullish for oil" says Eamonn Sheridan, editor at Forexlive. At the time of writing, US Oil futures are quoted at 90.83 after sharp fall off a double top from early February in the 98.00 vicinity. Venezuela enjoys the world's largest oil reserves and the oil-related bonds being traded are of enormous size, suggesting that the oil community may go through a phase of hyper-sensitivity on any indications of political unrest in the country. As Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes: "Although the news has little to do right now with the forex market, Venezuela is an oil producer, and therefore, we may see some wild action in oil and that could affect forex market." She tips to keep an eye on this and its correlation with oil, "particularly at the European and the US opening" she said.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-06 09:45 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2013-03-06 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Gross Domestic Product s.a. (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-06 15:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision (Mar 6)
2013-03-06 19:00 GMT | United States. Fed's Beige Book
Forex News :
2013-03-06 01:18 GMT | USD/JPY pressing against 93.00
2013-03-06 00:45 GMT | AUD/USD above 1.0280 after Aus GDP
2013-03-06 00:19 GMT | EUR/JPY still capped below 122.00
2013-03-05 22:50 GMT | AUD/JPY pushing against 6-day highs ahead of Aus GDP
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30704 LOW 1.30421 BID 1.30683 ASK 1.30688 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08:06:51
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Local high, formed today at 1.3070 (R1) is the key point for further uptrend formation on the medium-term perspective. Break here is required to validate next upcoming targets at 1.3090 (R2) and 1.3113 (R3). Downwards scenario: Immediate risk of further market decline is seen below the key support level at 1.3045 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 1.3022 (S2) and 1.3000 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51543 LOW 1.51236 BID 1.51441 ASK 1.51451 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:06:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment is slightly improved during the Asian session however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.5154 (R1) to enable our interim target at 1.5175 (R2) and then further gains would be limited to resistance at 1.5197 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside formation might face next supportive barrier at 1.5129 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to our initial support at 1.5108 (S2) and any further price regress would then be limited to final support and 1.5087 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5154, 1.5175, 1.5197
Support Levels: 1.5129, 1.5108, 1.5087
USDJPY :
HIGH 93.38 LOW 92.995 BID 93.186 ASK 93.192 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 06:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized below the next resistance level at 93.29 (R1). Penetration above it might encourage orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 93.51 (R2) and 93.72 (R3). Downwards scenario: An important technical level is seen at 92.99 (S1). Market decline below this level might initiate bearish pressure and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 92.78 (S2) and 92.56 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.29, 93.51, 93.72
Support Levels: 92.99, 92.78, 92.56
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex Account | Best ECN Forex Brokers | Forex Trading Systems | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 07 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 07 2013
ECB moving closer to a cut; BoE eyeing additional QE
Economic data coming out of the Eurozone in recent months has been rather poor but even though the ECB has still limited room to cut rates, it is generally not expected to make this move at the upcoming meeting. The BoE´s monetary policy decision is the source of more speculation this month as the minutes from the last meeting revealed that three MCP members expressed their support for additional QE. Even though the majority of the analysts polled for the special forecast report expect the ECB to cut interest rates sometime this year, they rather do not see the central bank making this decision in March. "The markets are nervous about the recent elections results in Italy as well as about a possible QE decrease by the Fed so I do not think Mario would want to add fuel to the fire," Adam Narczewski suggests, while others point also to the successful announcement of the OMT as a factor reducing the need for a cut. Only Steve Ruffley sees the ECB bringing "rates to 0.5%, in line with that of the BOE" on March 7, as "the economic horizon for the EU remains very treacherous."
Attention will center on the ECB press conference following the interest rate announcement, during which president Mario Draghi might, in the opinion of Bill Hubard, "revise inflation projections to the downside." He is also likely to "try and balance between the current economic situation which is quite depressing, and the optimism for growth in H2 2013, coming now from higher business confidence, mostly in Germany," as Yohay Elam believes. The outcome of the BoE´s March monetary policy meeting is less clear for the experts as the minutes from the January meeting surprised with the information that three out of the nine MPC members (including the governor Mervyn King) voted in favor of an additional expansion of the asset purchase program by £25 billion to £400 billion. "The downgrade by Moody's, together with the growing support for more QE and the lack of fiscal stimulus from the government will likely lead the MPC to action, even though the effects of QE on the economy are questionable," Yohay Elam predicts, but the majority of the economists polled believe the expansion could be carried out later in the year.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-07 12:00 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 12:45 GMT | E.M.U. ECB Interest Rate Decision (Mar 7)
2013-03-07 13:30 GMT | United States. Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-07 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info
Forex News :
2013-03-07 05:51 GMT | GBP/JPY still in uptrend - JPMorgan
2013-03-07 05:17 GMT | BoJ holds steady; Cable prints fresh lows
2013-03-07 04:55 GMT | NZDUSD bearish potential intact - Saxo Bank
2013-03-07 03:44 GMT | USD/JPY slightly to the downside as no surprise from BoJ
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29963 LOW 1.29686 BID 1.29911 ASK 1.29916 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 07 : 57:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: An evidence of uptrend formation might be provided if the price manages to surpass key resistive structure at 1.3009 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would put in focus our higher targets at 1.3038 (R2) and 1.0388 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument is moving with a ranging momentum on a slightly shorter timeframe and might retest our next support level at 1.2965 (S1). Market decline below it might lead to the further easing towards to next targets at 1.2938 (S2) and 1.2910 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3070, 1.3090, 1.3113
Support Levels: 1.3045, 1.3022, 1.3000
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50175 LOW 1.49669 BID 1.50019 ASK 1.50031 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 07 : 57:46
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 1.5043 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 1.5075 (R2) and further uptrend formation could be exhausted at 1.5107 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Technical indicators are bearish and if the price manages to break our next support level at 1.4968 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5043, 1.5075, 1.5107
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904
------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.115 LOW 93.792 BID 93.926 ASK 93.932 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 07 : 57:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Consolidation pattern formation likely comes to the end and appreciation above the resistance at 94.13 (R1) might start of a new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 94.42 (R2) and 94.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low formed today is pointing to a short-term key support at 93.77 (S1). Penetration below it might change near-term tone to the negative side and expose our initial targets at 93.47 (S2) and 93.19 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 94.13, 94.42, 94.70
Support Levels: 93.77, 93.47, 93.19
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 08 2013
Fed's stress test: banks better prepared for downturn
Stress tests results in the US, conducted by the Fed as an exercise required under the 2010 Dodd-Frank financial overhaul, have shown that 17 out of 18 banks stress tested meet the minimum requirement of tier 1 capital above the 5% threshold, noting that banks could weather sharp downturn with adequate capital. FED said 18 banks projected losses may amount $462 billion under severe market shock, with the test assuming an equity drop of more than 50% and housing prices decreasing more than 20%. The only bank failing to comply with the 5% tier 1 capital was Ally. In summary, all bans combined showed they exceed regulatory minimums although there were wide gaps among them.
The February US jobs numbers are not expected to differ substantially from those registered in the recent months, although the market experts participating in the forecast report suggest that they will rather be somewhat lower. This time the range of predictions is relatively narrow: between 110K and 200K jobs added. Alexandra Estiot who sees the US labor market growing by 180-200K in February justifies her optimistic forecast by saying that "in late 2012, some signs of strengthening were already obvious, with non-farm private payrolls growing by more than 200k a month" and that "leading indicators are pointing to a strengthening of that trend, with employment components of ISM surveys at historical highs." She nevertheless warns about the effects of the automatic budget cuts which after being implemented might harm the labor market. Other analysts, who expect more modest jobs gains in the range of 130K-170K, are also worried about the impact of the sequester and some suspect that the steady growth trend might be coming to an end. Steve Ruffley points to a similar situation in the corresponding period of last year: "We have seen a steady decrease in 2013 from the NFP highs of 247K to last month’s figure of 157K; this mirrors the start of 2012 where the NFP went from 259K to 154K." Should the reading prove better than expected "it could cause short-term positive reaction in the stocks market," as Talal Abdullah suggests and adds that "the uptick in NFP should increase the appeal for the U.S. dollar, as it raises the outlook for growth." US NFP numbers for February will be released on March 8 at 13:30 GMT.-FXstreet.com
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. Consumer Inflation Expectations
2013-03-08 11:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | Canada. Unemployment Rate (Feb)
2013-03-08 13:30 GMT | United States. Nonfarm Payrolls (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-08 05:33 GMT | GBP/USD unable to hold above 1.5000
2013-03-08 05:20 GMT | Draghi rescues Euro from its $1.30 agony, can it last?
2013-03-08 03:26 GMT | NZD/USD pullsback to retest 0.8260
2013-03-08 02:38 GMT | USD/JPY prints yet another fresh high above 95.20
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31152 LOW 1.3087 BID 1.30958 ASK 1.30964 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 30:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Markets simply ignored all resistive measures yesterday and formed clear uptrend signal on the hourly chart timeframe. Currently resistive structure at 1.3118 (R1) prevents further gains. Only clearance here would open route towards to next targets at 1.3139 (R2) and 1.3159 (R3). Downwards scenario: Today we expect some consolidation ahead prior further volatility increase. Possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.3074 (S1) with next expected targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3032 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3118, 1.3139, 1.3159
Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3032
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.50263 LOW 1.49816 BID 1.49944 ASK 1.49951 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08:30:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5020 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5050 (R2) and 1.5081 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside remains favored direction for today. The 1.4968 (S1) would be the key support level. Decline below it might take the pair towards to eventual targets, located at 1.4935 (S2) and 1.4904 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5020, 1.5050, 1.5081
Support Levels: 1.4968, 1.4935, 1.4904
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.445 LOW 94.781 BID 95.287 ASK 95.291 CHANGE 0.49% TIME 08 : 30:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY broke all resistive measure yesterday and currently stabilized near its high’s. Appreciation above the resistive barrier at 95.50 (R1) is compulsory to resume positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 95.84 (R2) and 96.19 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, we still keep the downside extension in focus. Risk of further market depreciation is seen below the support level at 95.10 (S1). Loss here would enable initial targets at 94.75 (S2) and 94.37 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 95.50, 95.84, 96.19
Support Levels: 95.10, 94.75, 94.37
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, ([url]http://www.fxcc.com[/url])
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 11 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 11 2013
Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative
Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.
Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
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Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00
--------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08:04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08:04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08:04:56
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.
Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Currency Converter | Forex School | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 12 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 12 2013
Troika inclined towards extending Portugal’s rescue loan maturity
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For the London session ahead UK Manufacturing production for January on monthly basis at 09:30 GMT will be key risk event of the day, along with UK Trade balance and Industrial production at same hour. The British Manufacturing Production indicator measures the changes in output produced by manufacturers and in the turning of inventory. Manufacturing is a critical sector of the economy, and strong readings are an indication of economic growth. After a string of weak releases, Manufacturing Production shot up 1.6% in February, well above the market estimate of 0.7%. However, the markets are bracing for a much weaker figure for March, with an estimate of a paltry gain of just 0.1%. Will the indicator surprise the market with another strong reading?
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-12 07:00 GMT | Germany. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-12 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Goods Trade Balance (Jan)
2013-03-12 15:00 GMT | United Kingdom. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Feb)
2013-03-12 21:00 GMT | New Zeland. REINZ House Price Index (MoM) (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-12 05:52 GMT | EUR/USD firmer above 1.30
2013-03-12 05:19 GMT | USD/JPY makes new highs; BoJ may call emergency meeting
2013-03-12 04:05 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.49 ahead of key UK data
2013-03-12 03:39 GMT | AUD/USD 1.0340/75 key zone to move higher - JPM
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30464 LOW 1.30229 BID 1.30250 ASK 1.30256 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 10:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.3035 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.3052 (R2) and 1.3070 (R3) Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.0318 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.0306 (S2) and then 1.0295 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3035, 1.3052, 1.3070
Support Levels: 1.0318, 1.0306, 1.0295
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49188 LOW 1.48857 BID 1.48955 ASK 1.48967 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 10:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 1.4935 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way for a stronger move towards to next interim target at 1.4969 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 1.5001 (R3) Downwards scenario: Market stabilized after the previous day’s losses and looks ready for a new step of downtrend extension. Key support level lies at 1.4866 (S1), clearance here would suggest lower targets at 1.4834 (S2) and 1.4803 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4935, 1.4969, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4866, 1.4834, 1.4803
------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.708 LOW 96.268 BID 96.442 ASK 96.445 CHANGE 0.17% TIME 08 : 10:40
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation provided last week we expect some consolidation development ahead, though medium-term bias remains bullish. Marks at 96.68 (R1), 97.07 (R2) and last one at 97.49 (R3) acts as resistive measures on the upside. Downwards scenario: A short-term technical structure might turn into negative side in case of price regress below the support level at 96.01 (S1). Possible correction below this level would then be targeting initial support at 95.60 (S2) en route towards to final target at 95.20 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 96.68, 97.07, 97.49
Support Levels: 96.01, 95.60, 95.20
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN Broker Account | Best Forex Trading Platform | Forex Blog | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 13 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 13 2013
Rehn defends Eurozone’s austerity policy
European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn spoke against the critics of budget cutting measures recommended by the European Union in an interview published today in a Finnish newspaper. Rehn responded to voices of such economists as Paul Krugman who suggest that Brussels should stop reducing spending and encourage the most indebted countries to stimulate their economies, instead of making them believe that this is a way to regain market confidence. The disagreement sprang up after the European Commission published various projections which pointed to a deeper and more prolonged recession in the countries in the south of Europe, which are implementing harsh austerity measures.
Olli Rehn believes that the experts who agree with Krugman distorted the results of a study carried out by the IMF in 2012 regarding the consequences of austerity, which said that the impact of spending cuts on growth could be greater than expected. According to the commissioner, “It is essential that the IMF paper does not give rise to the conclusion that economic adjustment would not be desirable” and that is why he believes that the critics are putting forward their own interpretation in order to attack the Eurozone policy. Rehn assured that he expects “people who are more intelligent” to present alternative and realistic propositions in order to improve the flow of credit in Europe, as until now this did not happen yet.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-13 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (Jan)
2013-03-13 12:30 GMT | United States. Retail Sales (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-13 17:00 GMT | United States. 10-Year Note Auction
2013-03-13 20:00 GMT | New Zeland. Monetary Policy Statement
--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30438 LOW 1.30227 BID 1.30390 ASK 1.30398 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 07 : 58:37
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD lost momentum recently and trapped to the range mode trading. On the upside next hurdle ahead is seen at 1.3053 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3069 (R2) and 1.3084 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.3022 (S1). A fall below it might prolong the weakness towards to next target at 1.3006 (S2) and any further market decline would then be limited to final support at 1.2988 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3053, 1.3069, 1.3084
Support Levels: 1.3022, 1.3006, 1.2988
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49524 LOW 1.48927 BID 1.49360 ASK 1.49370 CHANGE 0.25% TIME 07 : 58:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Retail trader’s sentiment on the bullish side today. Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the important resistive bastion at 1.4952 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 1.4976 (R2) and 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our support level is placed on the important fractal level- 1.4916 (S1). Below here is seen potential of price acceleration towards to our initial targets at 1.4890 (S2) and then final one at 1.4865 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4952, 1.4976, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.101 LOW 95.589 BID 95.711 ASK 95.718 CHANGE -0.38% TIME 07 : 58:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY corrected from the initial upside development yesterday and currently looking for priority in direction for today. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 96.10 (R1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 96.40 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Clearance of our next support level at 95.59 (S1) is required to enable further retracement phase and expose our target at 95.31 (S2). Further market decline looks limited to final support level at 95.03 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 96.10, 96.40, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.59, 95.31, 95.03
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 14 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 14 2013
Eurogroup talks on Cyprus at Friday meeting might be unofficial
Eurozone Finance Ministers are expected to continue their negotiations on the rescue loan for Cyprus during the meeting scheduled for Friday, although some sources claim that these negotiations will be led on the sidelines of the main talks. Cyprus and the Troika are trying to bring down the amount of the aid to 10 billion euros from the previously estimated 17 billion euros. According to Peter Jackson from FxBriefs.com “Cyprus may be forced to raise money from levies on deposits, other taxes such as corporate tax (which could be raised to 12.5% from 10%), as well as the possibility of a much opposed financial transaction tax.”
Representatives of the international lenders will meet with president Nicos Anastasiades for preparatory talks before the Friday summit on Thursday evening in Nicosia. It was given to understand that there was a possibility of striking the bailout deal already on Friday. Nevertheless, a German government official said in the European afternoon that the talks on the rescue program for Cyprus would be informal, thus no final decision could be made this week. He also added that Germany is waiting for the Troika’s evaluation of Cyprus before making any decisions. The EU Finance Ministers’ meeting is due to start on Friday at 16:00 GMT, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem informed on his Twitter account.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-14 08:30 GMT | Switzerland. SNB Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-14 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Employment Change (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-14 12:30 GMT | United States. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-14 21:30 GMT | United States. Bank Stress Test Info
Forex News :
2013-03-14 06:08 GMT | EUR/USD, calls for lower lows persist
2013-03-14 05:23 GMT | Aussie skyrockets after 'beyond belief' Aus jobs
2013-03-14 03:50 GMT | USD/JPY call spreads attractive - Standard Chartered
2013-03-14 01:37 GMT | EUR/JPY puts pressure on 123.80/124.15 proven demand
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29814 LOW 1.29431 BID 1.29552 ASK 1.29561 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 49:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price tested negative territory today however clearance of next resistive structure at 1.2982 (R1) might open the way towards to our initial target at 1.2997 (R2) and any further market rise would then be targeting 1.3013 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, an element of supportive measures is found at 1.2942 (S1). Clearance of this level would suggest further downtrend development with possible targets at 1.2927 (S2) and 1.2911 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2982, 1.2997, 1.3013
Support Levels: 1.2942, 1.2927, 1.2911
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49564 LOW 1.49124 BID 1.49401 ASK 1.49411 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 49:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.4957 (R1), break here would open road towards to our next target at 1.4979 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive structure at 1.5001 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.4916 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.4890 (S2) and potentially to 1.4865 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4957, 1.4979, 1.5001
Support Levels: 1.4916, 1.4890, 1.4865
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USDJPY :
HIGH 96.146 LOW 95.684 BID 95.953 ASK 95.959 CHANGE -0.17% TIME 08 : 49:09
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downwar penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 96.17 (R1). Appreciation above it would suggest us about the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 96.43 (R2) and 96.69 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important supportive mark at 95.66 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift medium-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next intraday targets at 95.43 (S2) and 95.18 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 96.17, 96.43, 96.69
Support Levels: 95.66, 95.43, 95.18
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Best Forex Trading Software | Forex Currency Trading blog | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 15 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 15 2013
Van Rompuy issues day-1 EU summit statement
After concluding the first evening of talks among Euro zone leaders, President of the European Council Herman Van Rompuy issued a first statement proving details over how best to guide European economic policies. Van Rompuy said: "We reconfirmed our overall economic strategy. It has four strands: First. Restoring financial stability, and maintaining it: this is vital for confidence of consumers and investors, a key condition for internal demand and growth; Second. Ensuring sound public finances, structurally sound; Third. Urgently fighting unemployment – especially for youth, for whom the situation is dramatic in some countries. Four. And reforming for long-term growth and competitiveness."
The statement adds: "We all agree we need to keep turning our commitments into actions and results. Implementation continues to be key. The good progress towards structurally balanced budgets must continue. For each individual country, it's about making choices that make sense in the long run: Pursuing well-designed structural reforms; Being ruthless on tax evasion. Shifting taxation away from labour; Expenditure cuts where it makes us fitter, not sacrificing vital areas like innovation or education; And launching fast-acting and targeted measures to boost growth and employment, in particular for the youth." Starting in June, Van Rompuy made the pledge to start looking not only at national reform and jobs plans, "but also at the results of the Growth Compact concluded last year" he said, adding that "as a matter of fact, the President of the European Commission made a first report on the results of the Growth Compact already this evening."
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | E.M.U. European Council meeting
2013-03-15 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 12:30 GMT | United States. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-15 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)
Forex News :
2013-03-15 06:01 GMT | Euro buyers insist to defend $1.30; volatility to be on the rise
2013-03-15 04:48 GMT | USD/JPY unlikely to go lower on Japanese foreign investment - Nomura
2013-03-15 04:37 GMT | AUD/NZD higher, stalls below 1.2700/200 day SMA
2013-03-15 03:55 GMT | GBP could decline further – HSBC
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EURUSD
HIGH 1.30267 LOW 1.29992 BID 1.30192 ASK 1.30198 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 12:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Current price setup is aiming to resume initial upwards formation. Next resistive bastion lies at 1.3031 (R1). If the pair manages to overcome it we expect further progress towards to our initial targets at 1.3044 (R2) and 1.3057 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although, consolidation development looks reasonable on the hourly timeframe. If the market manages break our next support at 1.2997 (S1) we would suggest next supportive measures at 1.2985 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3031, 1.3044, 1.3057
Support Levels: 1.2997, 1.2985, 1.2975
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51039 LOW 1.50686 BID 1.50857 ASK 1.50867 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 12:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market remains under the uptrend formation and a break above the resistance level at 1.5119 (R1) might resume bullish pressure. In such scenario, we would suggest next target at 1.5138 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Market decline below the next supportive mean at 1.5068 (S1) might trigger bearish pressure and enable lower target at 1.5047 (S2) and even 1.5027 (R3) mark could be exposed if the pair accelerates on the downside.
Resistance Levels: 1.5119, 1.5138, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5068, 1.5047, 1.5027
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USDJPY :
HIGH 96.274 LOW 95.882 BID 96.089 ASK 96.093 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 12:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY continues moving sideways however we see possibility to overcome our next resistive barrier at 96.26 (R1). Progress above it would suggest next intraday targets at 96.48 (R2) and 96.70 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside penetration is limited to the initial support level at 95.88 (S1). A breach of which would open a route towards to next target at 95.67 (S2) and potentially could expose our final support for today at 95.42 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 96.26, 96.48, 96.70
Support Levels: 95.88, 95.67, 95.42
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Currency Trading Blog | Forex Account | ECN Forex Software | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 18 2013
Cyprus faces 'corralito' à la Argentinean
Back in May 2012, fears that Greece may leave the EU triggered bank runs in the country, and many economist speculated with the possibility of the country establishing a “corralito”- the economic measures taken in Argentina at the end of 2001 that almost completely froze bank accounts and forbade withdrawals from U.S. dollar-denominated accounts. Bank runs extended then to Spain and Italy, although they finally come under control. But revival came back this weekend: Cyprus bail-out approval cost almost €6 billion to taxpayers, which next Tuesday –Monday will be declared bank holiday-, will find something different in their bank accounts: a one-off 9.9% levy imposed on all deposits over the insurance threshold of €100,000. For accounts below the insurance ceiling, the onetime tax will be of 6.75%.
Cyprus PM Michael Sarris, admitted it was a tough decision, and even stated “I wish I was not the minister to do this,” although he added that “much more money could have been lost in a bankruptcy of the banking system or indeed of the country.” Without a rescue, Cyprus would default and threaten to unravel investor confidence in the EU that has been fostered by ECB’s president Mario Draghi promise to do “whatever it takes” to shore up the currency bloc. However, a precedent has been set, and this partial “corralito” may trigger exactly what is trying to prevent: an erosion in investors’ confidence in the EU, and bank runs, if not in Cyprus, in the rest of the peripheral troubled countries. Monday European opening may see bank runs, particularly in Spain and Italy, and a domino effect may force governments to take extraordinary measures. “Corralito” arrived to Europe, and may be here to stay.
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Forex News :
2013-03-18 05:52 GMT | GBP/USD stable around 1.51 despite the turmoil
2013-03-18 05:27 GMT | Cyprus all over the place and EUR/USD below 1.29
2013-03-18 03:25 GMT | EUR/GBP tumbles through 0.8550 as Euro sell-offs
2013-03-18 02:43 GMT | EUR/JPY, break of 122.00 exposes 121.10/20 - V.Bednarik
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29315 LOW 1.28818 BID 1.29038 ASK 1.29043 CHANGE -1.3% TIME 08 : 57:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market dropped on the news from Cyprus and determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. However break above the resistance at 1.2943 (R1) would suggest next target at 1.2971 (R1) en route towards to higher mark at 1.2999 (R3). Downwards scenario: The Asian session momentum on the downside suggests a possible move lower ahead. Key supportive bastion lie at 1.2881 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.2857 (S2) and 1.2832 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2943, 1.2971, 1.2999
Support Levels: 1.2881, 1.2857, 1.2832
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51305 LOW 1.50717 BID 1.51041 ASK 1.51052 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 57:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase. Fractals level at 1.5115 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets, located at 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our short-term outlook would be negative. Any extension lower the 1.5082 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5061 (S2) and 1.5040 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040
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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.987 LOW 94.311 BID 94.464 ASK 94.467 CHANGE -0.83% TIME 08 : 57:40
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: USDJPY has gradually climbed eased during the Asian session, having made fresh low but lately lost momentum. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be found at 94.98 (R1). Appreciation above it would enable higher marks at 95.22 (R2) and 95.45 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook remains negative. If the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 94.31 (S1), it is likely to expose our next support level at 94.08 (S2) and 93.85 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 94.98, 95.22, 95.45
Support Levels: 94.31, 94.08, 93.85
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 19 2013
Will Cyprus Bailout Set Tone for Trading this Week?
The sharp sell-off in currencies and European equities overnight indicate that investors are shocked by Cyprus' bailout news as they should be since this would be the first time in Eurozone history that depositors have taken a loss. The EUR/USD may have rebounded off its lows on speculation about a modified deal that is less aggressive but regardless of how much depositors above or below 100,000 euros are taxed, the mere possibility that they will be taxed at all undermines the credibility of the entire banking system. Optimists argue that this situation is unique to Cyprus but we don't know how reassuring a watered down deal will be as this could set a precedent for the entire region. We won't even go into how unfair it is that senior bondholders are being saved at the expense of moms and pops and that depositors with money under their mattresses are safer than depositors in the bank. What we do know is that the Cyprus bailout has set the tone for trading in an extremely data and event risk heavy week by reawakening the fear of contagion. The vote in parliament on the bailout deal has been postponed until Tuesday and this means that this risk off tone will remain prevalent for the immediate future.
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Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United Kingdom. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-03-19 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-19 10:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Mar)
2013-03-19 12:30 GMT | United States. Housing Starts (MoM) (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-19 05:30 GMT | GBP/USD going nowhere around 1.5100
2013-03-19 05:23 GMT | Euro buying interest fades ahead of 1.30
2013-03-19 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD reverses on Rio Tinto's comments
2013-03-19 02:31 GMT | USD/JPY breaks above 95.50
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29694 LOW 1.29339 BID 1.29358 ASK 1.29367 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 02:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Currently price is stabilized however on a slightly longer term market sentiment remains negative. Appreciation above the resistance level at 1.2969 (R1) might prolong corrective action towards to next targets at 1.2993 (R2) and 1.3016 (R3). Downwards scenario: Signal of instrument depreciation would be created if EURUSD depreciates below the next support level at 1.2934 (S1). We would suggest next interim targets at 1.2912 (S2) and then aim at 1.2890 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2969, 1.2993, 1.3016
Support Levels: 1.2934, 1.2912, 1.2890
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51128 LOW 1.5084 BID 1.50923 ASK 1.50937 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 02:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: So far Instrument traded in consolidative phase and being unable to made significant price deviation from its average price. Our resistive barrier at 1.5115 (R1) limits upside expansion. Break here is required to establish upwards formation targeting 1.5135 (R2) and 1.5156 (R3). Downwards scenario: Bearish pressure could find momentum below the support at 1.5082 (S1). Possible downtrend expansion would open road towards to next target at 1.5061 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.5040 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 1.5115, 1.5135, 1.5156
Support Levels: 1.5082, 1.5061, 1.5040
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USDJPY :
HIGH 95.746 LOW 95.123 BID 95.430 ASK 95.437 CHANGE 0.24% TIME 08 : 02:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument has bounced back and currently trades within the bullish pattern. If It manages to break above the next resistance level at 95.75 (R1), we expect to see appreciation towards to next targets at 95.94 (R2) and 96.13 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further price depreciation is seen below the support at 95.38 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and drive market price towards to next target at 95.19 (S2) and potentially could even expose our final target at 94.99 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 95.75, 95.94, 96.13
Support Levels: 95.38, 95.19, 94.99
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Best Forex Trading Platforms | Forex Practice Account | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis
