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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 28 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 28 2013
China indicates the release of unprecedented economic measures when it holds its next government meeting.
There are several USA high impact news events for Monday that could affect market sentiment. Pending home sales is expected to increase to 0.5% month on month from a surprise fall of -1.6% last month. Industrial production data is expected to increase to 0.5% month on month. Economists forecast no change in purchases, the worst reading in six months, after a 0.2 percent advance in August, according to a survey ahead of Commerce Department figures due Oct. 29th. Sales excluding motor vehicle dealers may have increased 0.4 percent in September, a sign other merchants had more success selling to customers. The RBA governor Stevens speaks later in the afternoon, investors in AUS and speculators in the Aussie will be looking for any clues regarding a base interest rate cut which appeared to be off the table in last week's notes from the RBA. Japan issues a raft of data on Monday; retail sales, unemployment and household spending which if poor the Nikkei could fall with a corresponding rise in yen as a safe haven. Retail sales are expected to rise, unemployment to fall to 4%, but household spending is also predicted to increase by 0.7%.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-10-28 13:15 GMT | US Industrial Production (MoM) (Sep)
2013-10-28 14:00 GMT | US Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Sep)
2013-10-28 22:30 GMT | RBA's Governor Glenn Stevens Speech
2013-10-28 23:30 GMT | JP Unemployment Rate (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-10-28 06:37 GMT | EUR/GBP opens lower ahead of German data – trading range bound short-term
2013-10-28 06:20 GMT | EUR/USD hovers around 1.3800, ahead of a batch of US data, FOMC
2013-10-28 06:06 GMT | USD/CHF trading higher to start weak; technicians skeptical with 0.8750 downside target
2013-10-28 05:04 GMT | GBP/USD consolidates around 1.6180 area, awaiting the severe storm in UK
------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.38177 LOW 1.37959 BID 1.38003 ASK 1.38005 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 49:13
Upwards scenario: EURUSD is approaching our key resistive measure at 1.3833 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3862 (R2) and 1.3892 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our next supportive barrier at 1.3775 (S1) prevents possible correction development. Break here is required to enable downside expansion towards to our intraday targets at 1.3745 (S2) and 1.3714 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3833, 1.3862, 1.3892
Support Levels: 1.3775, 1.3745, 1.3714
-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61895 LOW 1.61615 BID 1.61796 ASK 1.61798 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 49:14
Upwards scenario: Possible penetration above the resistance level at 1.6205 (R1) is liable to open way towards to our initial targets at 1.6233 (R2) and 1.6261 (R3). Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.6150 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.6123 (S2) and 1.6097 (S3) as possible intraday targets.
Resistance Levels: 1.6205, 1.6233, 1.6261
Support Levels: 1.6150, 1.6123, 1.6097
------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.733 LOW 97.446 BID 97.587 ASK 97.591 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 08 : 49:15
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Further upwards penetration above the resistance at 97.74 (R1) might enable bullish forces and expose our initial targets at 97.87 (R2) and 98.00 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of further market decline is seen below the next support level at 97.44 (S1). Loss here is liable to downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 97.31 (S2) and 97.18 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 97.74, 97.87, 98.00
Support Levels: 97.44, 97.31, 97.18
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 29 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 29 2013
FOMC meeting starts as speculation mounts regarding potential taper of monetary easing programme
Naturally most investor eyes will be fixed on any announcements from the first day of the FOMC meeting, clues as to tapering will be hawkishly observed. Net lending to individuals in the UK should print at 2.5 billion up from 1.6 billion the previous month. Similarly mortgage approvals should rise to 65K from 62K the previous month. Retail sales in the USA are expected to print at 0.2% up, with PPI up 0.2%. Annual house prices in the USA are expected to be up 12.4% year on year. The USA Conference Board sentiment index is expected in at 75.2 a fall from 79.7 the previous month. The bank of Canada governor Poloz is due to testify, along with Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem, before the House of Commons Standing Committee on Finance, in Ottawa. The DJIA closed down 0.01% on Monday, the SPX up 0.13% and the NASDAQ down 0.08%. European indices were mixed, STOXX index down 0.42%, FTSE up 0.07%, CAC down 0.48%, DAX down 0.03%. The Athens exchange once again bucked the trend by closing up 1.37%. Commodities rallied on Monday, ICE WTI oil finished the day up 0.85% at $98.68 per barrel, NYMEX natural down 0.17% at $3.56 per therm, COMEX gold closed up 0.04% on the day at $1352.70 and silver down 0.06% at $22.52 per ounce. Oil rallied amid a drop in Libyan output and bets that central banks in America and Japan will maintain monetary stimulus. Looking towards the European open STOXX equity index future is down 0.36%, FTSE up 0.24%, CAC down 0.46% and DAX down 0.03%. The DJIA equity index future is currently down 0.03%, SPX down 0.02% and the NASDAQ down 0.27%.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-10-29 09:30 GMT | UK Mortgage Approvals (Sep)
2013-10-29 12:30 GMT | US Retail Sales (MoM) (Sep)
2013-10-29 14:00 GMT | US Consumer Confidence (Oct)
2013-10-29 23:50 GMT | JP Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-10-29 03:16 GMT | GBP/USD glued to 1.6085 support
2013-10-29 02:55 GMT | USD/JPY exhausts after recovering session losses around 97.60
2013-10-29 02:03 GMT | AUD/USD emerges from 0.9515 2-week lows; consolidating above 0.9540
2013-10-29 01:21 GMT | EUR/USD pulling back gently. Is it anticipating bad data out of the US?
-----------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.37937 LOW 1.37693 BID 1.37856 ASK 1.37858 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 40:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3818 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3845 (R2) and then final aim locates at 1.3872 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.3769 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.3741 (S2) and 1.3714 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3818, 1.3845, 1.3872
Support Levels: 1.3769, 1.3741, 1.3714
----------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61442 LOW 1.60643 BID 1.61024 ASK 1.61033 CHANGE -0.24% TIME 08 : 40:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 1.6137 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 1.6161 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 1.6185 (R3).Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possible downside expansion might face next hurdle at 1.6063 (S1). Break here is required to initiate bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 1.6040 (S2) and 1.6019 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.6137, 1.6161, 1.6185
Support Levels: 1.6063, 1.6040, 1.6019
---------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.717 LOW 97.462 BID 97.540 ASK 97.542 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 40:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Clearance of our next resistive barrier at 97.74 (R1) might push the price towards to our next visible targets at 97.87 (R2) and 98.00 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 97.44 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 97.31 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 97.18 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 97.74, 97.87, 98.00
Support Levels: 97.44, 97.31, 97.18
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 30 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 30 2013
Tuesday's NFP day, let's be careful out there
The big event of the day is the 18 day late publication of the NFP figures. Traders need to exercise caution as the figure might come in far better than predicted, but be subject to significant revisions due to the temporary govt. shutdown. The anticipation is for a print of 182K jobs created with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 7.3%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.60 percent as of 5 p.m in New York. The price of the 2.5 percent note due in August 2023 fell 6/32, or $1.88 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 1/8. The yield declined to 2.54 percent on Oct. 18th, the lowest since July 24th, down from a 2013 high of 3 percent on Sept. 6th.Treasury 10-year notes snapped a three-day advance before the NFP government report on Tuesday.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-10-22 08:30 GMT | UK Public Sector Net Borrowing (Sep)
2013-10-22 12:30 GMT | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Sep)
2013-10-22 12:30 GMT | CA Retail Sales (MoM) (Aug)
2013-10-22 23:00 GMT | AU CB Leading Indicator (Aug)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-10-22 05:15 GMT | Good Chinese data leads to little movement in the markets; traders await US data
2013-10-22 05:09 GMT | Oil sits below $100, gold consolidates
2013-10-22 04:35 GMT | GBP/USD grinds slowly lower ahead of NFP data
2013-10-22 04:12 GMT | NFP likely no to have two-way directionality as usual - Rabobank
------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.36806 LOW 1.36622 BID 1.36711 ASK 1.36713 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 43:23
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of further price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3688 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest interim target at 1.3704 (R2) and then mark at 1.3721 (R3) acts as next attractive point. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the key support level at 1.3651 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.3635 (S2) and 1.3618 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3688, 1.3704, 1.3721
Support Levels: 1.3651, 1.3635, 1.3618
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.61475 LOW 1.61154 BID 1.61274 ASK 1.61277 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 43:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Retracement formation remains in power. Our next resistive measure lies at 1.6148 (R1), break here is required to achieve higher targets at 1.6173 (R2) and 1.6199 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 1.6115 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to lower targets at 1.6090 (S2) and 1.6065 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6148, 1.6173, 1.6199
Support Levels: 1.6115, 1.6090, 1.6065
USDJPY
HIGH 98.364 LOW 98.136 BID 98.311 ASK 98.313 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 43:25
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 98.37 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 98.50 (R2) and 98.62 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 98.15 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.03 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support at 97.90 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.37, 98.50, 98.62
Support Levels: 98.15, 98.03, 97.90
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 31 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 31 2013
China's top four banks post bad loan surge whilst the markets await data prints on Chinese growth on Thursday evening
In the overnight/early morning session the BOJ of Japan conducts their own version of an FOMC meeting. The results may affect the value of yen and the Nikkei. They'll deliver a monetary policy statement, an outlook report and then conduct a press conference. On Thursday German retail sales are expected to rise by 0.5%, Italy's employment rate is expected to climb to 12.4%, EU unemployment is expected to come in at 12%. Canada's GDP for the month is expected in at 0.2%, whilst USA weekly unemployment claims are expected in at 341K, this print is still liable to potentially deliver a surprise given the temporary USA govt. shutdown might still be working its way through the system. Late in the evening two extremely important prints from China are published. The manufacturing PMI and the HSBC final manufacturing PMI. China’s top four banks have posted their biggest increase in bad loans since 2010 as a five-year credit surge has left companies with excess manufacturing capacity and slower profit growth amid an economic slowdown. Nonperforming loans at Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd, China Construction Bank Corp, Agricultural Bank of China Ltd and Bank of China Ltd rose 3.5 percent in the three months to Sept. 30th from June to a combined 329.4 billion yuan ($54 billion). Profit rose to 209 billion yuan.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-10-31 06:32 GMT | EUR/USD downwards on Nowotny Comments, less dovish FOMC than expected
2013-10-31 06:28 GMT | BOJ semi-annual report: QE to achieve inflation goal
2013-10-31 05:57 GMT | FOMC to begin taper at some point in coming quarters - Nomura
2013-10-31 05:39 GMT | GBP/JPY little changed after solid Japanese data, BoJ decision
-------------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.37386 LOW 1.36893 BID 1.37035 ASK 1.37038 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 43:19
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Upwards penetration is limited to the important resistance level at 1.3718 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 1.3734 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be targeting resistance at 1.3752 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, negative development might occur below the immediate support level at 1.3698 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.3674 (S2) and 1.3656 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3718, 1.3734, 1.3752
Support Levels: 1.3698, 1.3674, 1.3656
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60432 LOW 1.60059 BID 1.60130 ASK 1.60132 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 43:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: We see potential to test our resistive barrier at 1.6043 (R1) later on today. Successful penetration above this mark might keep bullish sentiment in play and validate our intraday targets at 1.6077 (R2) and 1.6110 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level lies at 1.5994 (S1). Penetration below it might shift short-term tone to the negative side. Our intraday targets locates at 1.5961 (S2) and 1.5928 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6043, 1.6077, 1.6110
Support Levels: 1.5994, 1.5961, 1.5928
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.571 LOW 98.272 BID 98.352 ASK 98.356 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 43:21
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY is approaching our next resistive measure at 98.67 (R1) on the upside. Break here is required to enable bullish potential and expose our interim target at 98.82 (R2). Further price appreciation would then be limited to last resistance at 98.96 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to clear the resistive measure we expect to see recovery action. Clearance of our next support level at 98.15 (S1) is required to enable our targets at 97.99 (S2) and 97.84 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 98.67, 98.82, 98.96
Support Levels: 98.15, 97.99, 97.84
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 01 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 01 2013
USA final manufacturing print scheduled to come in at 51.2 whilst investors await FOMC member Bullard's comments
The latest seasonally adjusted Australian Industry Group Australian Performance of Manufacturing Index (Australian PMI) improved by 1.5 points in October, rising to 53.2 points. This was the second consecutive month that the Australian PMI has moved above 50 points, indicating mild expansion across the manufacturing industry. Several PMIs are published on Friday, the first is the UK's manufacturing PMI expected to come in at 56.3. The USA final manufacturing PMI is scheduled to print at 51.2. In the USA FOMC member Bullard will speak in the afternoon, where we'll also receive the ISM prints for manufacturing. Equity index futures are mainly positive at the time of writing; the DJIA is up 0.21%, SPX up 0.15% and the NASDAQ equity index future is up 0.17%. The if FTSE is down 0.64%, CAC up 0.62% and DAX up 0.23%. The benchmark 10-year yield rose two basis points on Thursday, or 0.02 percentage points, to 2.55 percent at 5 p.m. New York time after touching 2.57 percent, the highest since Oct. 22nd. It earlier fell four basis points to 2.50 percent. The 2.5 percent note maturing in August 2023 dropped 1/8, or $1.25 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 17/32. Ten-year note yields have fallen six basis points this month after sliding 17 basis points in September. Europe’s 17-nation currency slid 1.1 percent to $1.3584 late in New York time Thursday and fell by as much as 1.2 percent, the biggest intraday drop seen since April 17th. The euro sank by 1.3 percent to 133.60 yen. Japan’s currency gained 0.2 percent to 98.36 per dollar after depreciating yesterday to 98.68, the weakest level since Oct. 17th.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-01 08:30 GMT | SW SVME - Purchasing Managers' Index (Oct)
2013-11-01 09:28 GMT | UK Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
2013-11-01 13:58 GMT | US Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
2013-11-01 14:00 GMT | US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-01 06:23 GMT | AUD/USD upwards on beating Chinese Manufacturing PMI
2013-11-01 05:37 GMT | EUR/JPY getting hammered as stops are creating snowball effect; 132.77 is short-term support
2013-11-01 04:04 GMT | USD/JPY sellers blow 98.00 support
2013-11-01 03:56 GMT | GBP/USD still hovering above short-term support at 1.6008; more downside expected
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35894 LOW 1.35398 BID 1.35504 ASK 1.35509 CHANGE -0.24% TIME 08 : 47:05
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Current price setup is looking for upwards extension possibility. Risk of the price acceleration is seen above the key resistance level at 1.3597 (R1). Clearance here would put immediate focus on the next targets at 1.3629 (R2) and then 1.3662 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 1.3539 (S1) prevent further downtrend development. Successful penetration below it would open a path towards to next intraday targets at 1.3507 (S2) and 1.3475 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3597, 1.3629, 1.3662
Support Levels: 1.3539, 1.3507, 1.3475
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60463 LOW 1.60169 BID 1.60285 ASK 1.60292 CHANGE -0.04% TIME 08 : 47:05
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD trapped to the consolidation phase on the hourly chart frame. Break of resistive level at 1.6070 (R1) is required to enable upwards action. Next visible targets are seen at 1.6100 (R2) and 1.6131 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible descending structure formation might get more stimulus if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 1.5998 (S1). Clearance here would suggest initial targets at 1.5966 (S2) and 1.5935 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6070, 1.6100, 1.6131
Support Levels: 1.5998, 1.5966, 1.5935
-----------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.382 LOW 97.809 BID 97.961 ASK 97.965 CHANGE -0.4% TIME 08 : 47:06
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: From the technical side, short - term tendency is bearish, however price appreciation is possible above the resistance level at 98.09 (R1). Loss here would open way towards to next targets at 98.30 (R2) and 98.51 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downtrend development may encounter supportive measure at 97.87 (S1). Penetration through this level would targeting then supportive means at 97.58 (S2) and 97.37 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 98.09, 98.30, 98.51
Support Levels: 97.78, 97.58, 97.37
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 05 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 05 2013
China's Li sets min GDP at 7,2%, warns against stimulus
The Chinese economy should keep its growth rate levels at 7.2% or above to keep generating enough jobs, said Premier Li Keqiang, also underscoring that relying too much on short term liquidity injections/stimulus should not be the primary focus as it risks similar fiscal problems faced by the Euro zone. Based on early projections, Li said Q3 economic indicators are in line to meet yearly targets, while warning looser policies should be avoided, saying that money supply - M2 - stands at a dangerous CNY100 trillion, twice China's GDP. According to Li, cited by MNI, in comments made in an October 21 speech made public Monday: "We have too much money in the pool. If we print more money, it may cause inflation. We all know bad inflation will not only disturb markets but also have big side effects and pressure people's lives and even cause panic."
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-05 10:00 GMT | European Commission Releases Economic Growth Forecasts
2013-11-05 15:00 GMT | US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Oct)
2013-11-05 21:45 GMT | NZ Unemployment Rate (Q3)
2013-11-05 23:50 GMT | BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-05 06:27 GMT | EUR/JPY tumbles alongside with Nikkei decline
2013-11-05 06:02 GMT | NZD/USD tumbled on RBA comments; now slightly higher
2013-11-05 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD at risk of 1.34 - Westpac
2013-11-05 03:35 GMT | RBA keeps neutral statement, AUD uncomfortably high
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35225 LOW 1.3491 BID 1.34972 ASK 1.34977 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 45:23
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3526 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3553 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 1.3581(R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunity for bearish oriented traders is seen below the important support level at 1.3478 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.3453 (S2) and 1.3427 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3526, 1.3553, 1.3581
Support Levels: 1.3478, 1.3453, 1.3427
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59821 LOW 1.59553 BID 1.59649 ASK 1.59657 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 45:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5983 (R1), keeping the short-term ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.6007 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.6034 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of price depreciation is seen below the support level at 1.5940 (S1). A fall below it might initiate retracement formation towards to next support at 1.5916 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support at 1.5892 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5983, 1.6007, 1.6034
Support Levels: 1.5940, 1.5916, 1.5892
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.674 LOW 98.24 BID 98.446 ASK 98.448 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 45:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Immediate resistance at 98.71 (R1) remains in near-term focus, climb above this level might open way towards to next interim target at 98.92 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistive measure at 99.15 (R3) Downwards scenario: Any penetration below the support level at 98.23 (S1) might create more scope for the instrument weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 98.01 (S2) and 97.80 (S3) as next possible targets.
Resistance Levels: 98.71, 98.92, 99.15
Support Levels: 98.23, 98.01, 97.80
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 06 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 06 2013
Will the European service PMI point to increased growth, or increased stagnation?
We receive a raft of PMIs in the morning trading session on Wednesday; the most eagerly anticipated being the European final services PMI expected to print at 50.9, no change from the previous month. The UK manufacturing and production figures are published, expected in at 1.2% and 0.7% respectively. European retail sales are predicted to fall by 0.3%, whilst Germany's factory orders are expected to rise by 0.6%. Canada's building permits are expected to rise to 7.8% from the disastrous figure of -21.2% the previous month. Later in the evening the unemployment numbers for Australia are published with the expectation that the number will come in at 5.7%. Looking towards the market open/s for Wednesday the DJIA equity index future is currently flat, as is the SPX and NASDAQ. The European equity indices are down; STOXX off 0.82%, FTSE down 0.39%, CAC down 0.88% and DAX down 0.31%. Oil fell badly on Tuesday, ICE WTI oil down 1.32% on the day at $93.37 per barrel. Now that the critical psyche level of $100 per barrel has been breached the commodity appears to be in free-fall. NYMEX natural closed up 0.38% at $3.48 per therm. COMEX gold closed up on the day by 0.28% at $1311.70 per ounce with silver down 0.03% at $21.70 per ounce.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-06 09:00 GMT | UK Industrial Production (YoY) (Sep)
2013-11-06 10:00 GMT | EMU Retail Sales (YoY) (Sep)
2013-11-06 12:00 GMT | US MBA Mortgage Applications (Nov 1)
2013-11-06 15:00 GMT | UK NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Oct)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-06 06:52 GMT | EUR/USD recovers 1.3500
2013-11-06 06:26 GMT | GBP/JPY skyrockets as Nikkei soars on Toyota gains
2013-11-06 04:33 GMT | USD/JPY soars as Nikkei up 1% above 14.400; also boosted by EUR/JPY rally
2013-11-06 03:18 GMT | GBP/USD tripping stops, targets 1.61
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.35213 LOW 1.34676 BID 1.35060 ASK 1.35064 CHANGE 0.23% TIME 08 : 50:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market sentiment has improved for the bullish oriented traders. Fractals level at 1.3524 (R1) offers a key resistance level. Break here would suggest higher targets at 1.3553 (R2) and 1.3581(R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.3478 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.3453 (S2) and 1.3427 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3524, 1.3553, 1.3581
Support Levels: 1.3478, 1.3453, 1.3427
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60957 LOW 1.60417 BID 1.60849 ASK 1.60855 CHANGE 0.26% TIME 08 : 50:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation is a likely scenario for today according to the technical readings. If the pair manages to clear the barrier at 1.6104 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.6127 (R2) and 1.6149 (R3). Downwards scenario: An evidence of possible descending structure could be provided if the GBPUSD manages to surpass next support level at 1.6062 (S1). In such case we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6040 (S2) and 1.6016 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6104, 1.6127, 1.6149
Support Levels: 1.6062, 1.6040, 1.6016
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USDJPY :
HIGH 98.755 LOW 98.409 BID 98.620 ASK 98.624 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 50:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed upwards penetration today and we see potential to expose our intraday targets at 98.95 (R2) and 99.15 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 98.76 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possible correction development would face next hurdle at 98.41 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next interim target at 98.22 (S2), en route to final aim at 98.03 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.76, 98.95, 99.15
Support Levels: 98.41, 98.22, 98.03
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 08 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 08 2013
The markets expect a very poor NFP print of circa 121K.
European news events in the morning session mainly concern the UK's balance of payments, expected in at -9.1billion and Germany's trade balance is expected in at +17.2 billion. North American employment figures for Canada and the USA are published in the afternoon trading session. Canada's unemployment rate is expected to rise to 7.0%, whilst the NFP jobs report for the USA is predicted to show that only 121K jobs were created in October. The unemployment rate in the USA may climb to 7.3%. The preliminary University of Michigan sentiment report is published expected to show a figure of 74.6. China delivers a raft of information late on Friday evening, the high impact news items will centre on the inflation levels, CPI expected in at 3.3%, new loans at circa 800 bn, and industrial production expected in at 10.1% up year on year. NYMEX WTI oil closed down on the day by 0.63% at $94.20 per barrel, NYMEX natural gas closed up on the day 0.60%, COMEX gold closed down 0.71% at $1308.50 per ounce, COMEX silver down 0.50% at $21.66 per ounce. Equity index futures are pointing to the main European and USA markets opening in negative territory. The DJIA is down 0.64%, the SPX down 1.16%, the NASDAQ down 1.67%. STOXX future is down 0.33%, DAX future up 0.51%, CAC future down 0.14%, and the UK FTSE future is down 0.73%.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-08 07:00 GMT | DE Trade Balance s.a. (Sep)
2013-11-08 09:30 GMT | UK Total Trade Balance (Sep)
2013-11-08 13:30 GMT | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct)
2013-11-08 13:30 GMT | CA Unemployment Rate (Oct)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-08 06:13 GMT | S&P downgrades France to AA from AA+, outlook stable
2013-11-08 05:49 GMT | AUD/USD peels back to opening levels
2013-11-08 05:00 GMT | USD/CHF well above the 0.9150 area
2013-11-08 04:56 GMT | US Non-Farm Payrolls will likely continue the volatility party that started Thursday
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.34241 LOW 1.33885 BID 1.33984 ASK 1.33987 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 40:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Appreciation above the resistance at 1.3453 (R1) might commence new step of the ascending structure. Our intraday targets today are placed at 1.3502 (R2) and 1.3551 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of possible price depreciation is seen below the support at 1.3296 (S1). Loss here might enable bearish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.3248 (S2) and 1.3199 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3453, 1.3502, 1.3551
Support Levels: 1.3296, 1.3248, 1.3199
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.6102 LOW 1.60784 BID 1.60945 ASK 1.60947 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 40:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: We see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 1.6117 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.6138 (R2) and 1.6158 (R3). Downwards scenario: Break of support at 1.6065 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.6043 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support at 1.6023 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6117, 1.6138, 1.6158
Support Levels: 1.6065, 1.6043, 1.6023
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USDJPY :
HIGH 98.255 LOW 98.039 BID 98.107 ASK 98.109 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 40:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 98.27 (R1) prevents possible gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 98.41 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 98.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 97.89 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 97.75 (S2) and 97.62 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 98.27, 98.41, 98.55
Support Levels: 97.89, 97.75, 97.62
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 11 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 11 2013
China's Plenum meeting could have a profound impact for global markets
Monday sees several bank holidays that will affect the volume of trading activity during the various trading sessions. France, Canada and the USA have bank holidays. The German Bundesbank president Weidmann will hold court with a conference on Monday. Whilst the German central bank is subservient and defers to the ECB, on matters such as quantitative easing and rate setting, investors and analysts will look for 'code' in Weidmann's speech concerning the direction the singular German economy will be headed for and directed towards over coming months. Towards the end of the trading day we'll receive the consumer confidence publication from Australia's National Bank. The previous month's reading came in at 12, a print close to this figure is expected. Sterling posted its first weekly advance in three versus the dollar as reports showed British services growth unexpectedly accelerated in October to the fastest pace in 16 years. U.K. government bonds declined for a second week as the Bank of England kept its key interest rate at a record low, whilst maintaining its bond-buying stimulus target. The pound climbed versus the euro for a second week, rising the most since April, after the European Central Bank unexpectedly lowered its benchmark interest rate, boosting demand for the U.K. currency. Benchmark 10-year yields reached the highest level in seven weeks last week after payrolls grew by 204,000 in October versus the 120,000 median forecast. U.S. debt rallied after the European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record to address prolonged price weakness. The USA Treasury will auction $70 billion of notes and bonds this week. Treasuries fell the most in two months as reports showed the economy expanded in the third quarter beyond projections, boosting speculation the Federal Reserve is moving closer to 'tapering' its $85 billion of monthly bond-buying.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-11 09:00 GMT | IT Industrial Output s.a. (MoM) (Sep)
2013-11-11 17:00 GMT | DE German Buba President Weidmann speech
2013-11-11 23:30 GMT | AU Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (Nov)
2013-11-11 23:50 GMT | JP Tertiary Industry Index (MoM) (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-11 04:55 GMT | EUR/JPY loses momentum in late Asian trading session
2013-11-11 04:55 GMT | GBP/USD, another 1.5900 retest on deck - 2ndSkies
2013-11-11 04:36 GMT | EUR/USD should see sell on strength circa 1.3375 - JPMorgan
2013-11-11 04:19 GMT | AUD/USD sideways after solid Australian home data
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.33671 LOW 1.33448 BID 1.33657 ASK 1.33659 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 29:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: While price is quoted below the moving averages our medium-term technical outlook would be negative. Though, appreciation above the resistance at 1.3438 (R1) might enable upwards penetration towards to next targets at 1.3492 (R2) and 1.3543 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside bearish pressure might push the price below the support at 1.3317 (S1). Further downside extension would open road towards to next target at 1.3262 (S2) and any further losses would then be limited to 1.3209 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 1.3438, 1.3492, 1.3543
Support Levels: 1.3317, 1.3262, 1.3209
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.60216 LOW 1.59978 BID 1.60182 ASK 1.60187 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 29:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD commenced consolidation pattern, however, price strengthening above the next resistive structure at 1.6058 (R1) might activate short-term bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.6085 (R2) and 1.6112 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the 20 SMA our technical outlook would be negative. Extension lower the next support level at 1.5993 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5968 (S2) and 1.5942 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6058, 1.6085, 1.6112
Support Levels: 1.5993, 1.5968, 1.5942
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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.225 LOW 98.94 BID 98.953 ASK 98.955 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 29:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: After the strong appreciation on Friday we expect to see some consolidation ahead. Though clearance of next resistance level at 99.23 (R1) might enable bullish pressure and open route towards to our next targets at 99.41 (R2) and 99.60 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, recovery phase might commence below the important support level at 98.85 (S1). Break here is required to validate our targets at 98.65 (S2) and 98.47 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 99.23, 99.41, 99.60
Support Levels: 98.85, 98.65, 98.47
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 12 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Nov 12 2013
USA small business optimism loses ground in October.
In the overnight early morning trading session we'll receive the publication of the Australian NAB business confidence report. Japan will release its consumer confidence index, predicted to come in at 46.3. UK inflation figures are published in the London session, expected to come in at 2.5% for CPI and 3% for RPI. The USA small business index is published in the afternoon session expected in at 93.5, as is the RBNZ financial stability report for New Zealand. It provides insights into the bank's view of inflation, growth, and other economic conditions that will affect interest rates in the future. The RBNZ governor Wheeler will then hold court shortly after the financial stability report to discuss the current state of the nation's finances. The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism in the USA has lost 2.3 points to 91.6. Two components, the outlook for business conditions and the outlook for real sales gains, accounted for 52 percent of the Index decline. A weaker outlook for business produced dissatisfaction with inventory stocks, and fewer plans to create new jobs. The average value of the Index since the recovery started is 91. Looking towards tomorrow's open the DJIA equity index future is up 0.18%, SPX up 0.09% and the NASDAQ future is currently at the time of writing down 0.15%. The DAX future is up 0.48%, STOXX up 0.69% and CAC up 0.81% with UK FTSE up 0.43%. The DJIA closed up 0.14%, the SPX up 0.07% and the NASDAQ up 0.01%. Looking at Europe's bourses the STOXX index closed up 0.59%, CAC up 0.70%, DAX up 0.33%, and the UK FTSE up 0.30%.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-11-12 09:30 GMT | UK Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Oct)
2013-11-12 13:30 GMT | US Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Sep)
2013-11-12 20:00 GMT | RBNZ Financial Stability Report
2013-11-12 23:50 GMT | JP Machinery Orders (YoY) (Sep)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-11-12 07:16 GMT | EUR/USD dips to lows on German data
2013-11-12 06:56 GMT | GBP/USD deflates to session lows
2013-11-12 05:28 GMT | EUR/GBP on the soggy side
2013-11-12 05:07 GMT | GBP/AUD soars on solid UK home data, struggling Aussie
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EURUSD
HIGH 1.34137 LOW 1.33798 BID 1.33938 ASK 1.33941 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 09 : 51:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of further price progress is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3438 (R1). Breakthrough here would suggest interim target at 1.3485 (R2) and then mark at 1.3532 (R3) acts as next attractive point. Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the support level at 1.3368 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our supportive barrier at 1.3317 (S2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.3270 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3438, 1.3485, 1.3532
Support Levels: 1.3368, 1.3317, 1.3270
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.59922 LOW 1.59513 BID 1.59573 ASK 1.59577 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 09 : 51:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 1.5978 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.6005 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.6031 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, progress below the initial support level at 1.5932 (S1) might initiate bearish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 1.5907 (S2) and 1.5880 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5978, 1.6005, 1.6031
Support Levels: 1.5932, 1.5907, 1.5880
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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.731 LOW 99.104 BID 99.688 ASK 99.692 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 09 : 51:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Further price appreciation needs to clear the barrier at 99.86 (R1) to enable our interim target at 100.06 (R2) and then any further gains would be limited to last resistance at 100.25 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, USDJPY might encounter supportive measures at 99.30 (S1). Break here would open the way for a test of our next targets at 99.10 (S2) and 98.89 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 99.86, 100.06, 100.25
Support Levels: 99.30, 99.10, 98.89
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Oct 28 2013
