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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 20 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 20 2013
Cypriot levy rejected, European leaders weigh in
Cyprus’s parliament rejected an unprecedented levy on bank deposits, rendering a blow to European plans of coercing depositors to shoulder part of the country’s rescue in a standoff that risks renewed tumult in the euro area. Cypriot legislators in Nicosia voted 36 against to none in favor of the proposal in a show of hands today along with 19 abstentions – hammered out by euro-area finance leaders over the weekend, the deal had sought to raise €5.8B by drawing funds from Cyprus bank accounts in return for €10.0B in international aid. Stocks dropped and the euro fell to a three-month low against the dollar at the prospect of impasse in Cyprus. European officials including Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem had said that Cyprus must contribute to its own bailout, while stressing that the Cypriot situation is unique. German coalition lawmakers said that Cyprus can expect no aid without meeting the terms.
“Cyprus has rebuffed the outstretched hand” of its partners, Hans Michelbach, a German lawmaker from Chancellor Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc and the ranking member on parliament’s finance committee, noted in a statement. The vote is “an act of collective unreason” and “the people of Cyprus must now pay a high price.”The ECB said it “takes note of the decision of the Cypriot Parliament and is in contact with its Troika partners” from the International Monetary Fund and the European Commission, according to a statement. “The ECB reaffirms its commitment to provide liquidity as needed within the existing rules.”
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/20032013/[/url]
Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-20 07:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-20 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2013-03-20 18:00 GMT | United States. Fed Interest Rate Decision
2013-03-20 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (Q4)
Forex News :
2013-03-20 05:50 GMT | GBP/USD below 1.5100 ahead of a very very busy day
2013-03-20 04:40 GMT | AUD/USD back to session highs, still sideways
2013-03-20 02:39 GMT | Euro area faces new challenge on Cyprus drama - Nomura
2013-03-20 01:53 GMT | USD/JPY kept below 95.00, sellers dominant s/t
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.2879 LOW 1.28566 BID 1.28755 ASK 1.28762 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 07:31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD discounted value determined negative bias on the medium-term perspective. From the technical side, next resistance is seen at 1.2916 (R1). Only clearance here would allow further gains, targeting 1.2937 (R2) and 1.2959 (R3). Downwards scenario: Descending channel formation on the hourly chart frame is limited now to the session low - 1.2856 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2835 (S2) and 1.2813 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2916, 1.2937, 1.2959
Support Levels: 1.2856, 1.2835, 1.2813
---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51065 LOW 1.50798 BID 1.50891 ASK 1.50902 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 07:32
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Neutral
TREND CONDITION Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY High
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is consolidating on the hourly chart however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.5128 (R2) and 1.5149 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5107 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.5072 (S1). Possible price regress could exposed our initial targets at 1.5053 (S2) and 1.5033 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5107, 1.5128, 1.5149
Support Levels: 1.5072, 1.5053, 1.5033
---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.202 LOW 94.829 BID 95.035 ASK 95.040 CHANGE -0.13% TIME 08 : 07:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument consolidates after the initial price cut yesterday though our medium-term outlook is positive. Our reference point for the upside penetration locates at 95.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable higher targets at 95.39 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is put to the immediate support level at 94.99 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 94.83 (S2) and 94.67 (S3
Resistance Levels: 95.22, 95.39, 95.55
Support Levels: 94.99, 94.83, 94.67
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN Forex Trading Accounts | ECN Broker List | Currency Converter | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 21 2013
Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB+, outlook negative
Fitch Ratings decided to downgrade Italy's rating to 'BBB+' from 'A-', citing the inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections and deeper recession as the main reasons. Fitch also kept negative outlook on the country, meaning Italy could see another downgrade. "The inconclusive results of the Italian parliamentary elections on 24-25 February make it unlikely that a stable new government can be formed in the next few weeks", said Fitch. "The increased political uncertainty and non-conducive backdrop for further structural reform measures constitute a further adverse shock to the real economy amidst the deep recession". Fitch also said that the ongoing recession in Italy is one of the deepest in Europe as confirmed by Q412 data.
Following what could be described as a 'remarkable' jobs number in the United States last Friday, with the jobless rate down to 7.7% and the economy creating 236K new jobs, highest since early 2012, the US Dollar continues to be one of the big winners in the currency market. Are the stars aligning for further Greenback strength? Before touching on the prospects for further USD appreciation, especially against the Euro, an interesting phenomenon not to ignore last Friday is the positive correlation between the US Dollar and the equity market, an occurrence which has seen commentators of the market busy speculating such behaviour as an early sign of improvement in market confidence.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/11032013/[/url]
Forex News :
2013-03-11 05:46 GMT | EUR/USD, the 1.30 flirt goes on ...
2013-03-11 05:22 GMT | GBP/USD resting above 1.4900
2013-03-11 03:28 GMT | AUD/JPY holding above 98 on the back of Yen weakness
2013-03-11 01:15 GMT | EUR/JPY unchanged below 125.00
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3009 LOW 1.29792 BID 1.30027 ASK 1.30035 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is negative for the EURUSD though possibility of price deviation is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3016 (R1). Retracement targets could be exposed at 1.3035 (R2) and 1.3054 (R3). Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.2979 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.2960 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.2941 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3016, 1.3035, 1.3054
Support Levels: 1.2979, 1.2960, 1.2941
---------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.49273 LOW 1.49009 BID 1.49263 ASK 1.49274 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 04:55
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Breaching of resistance at 1.4958 (R1) is required to provide an evidence of corrective action. Possible targets could be exposed at 1.4990 (R2) and 1.5022 (R3) later on today in such scenario. Downwards scenario: Fresh low formed today offers an important support level at 1.4899 (S1). Discounted value of GBPUSD might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 1.4866 (S2) en route to support at 1.4834 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4958, 1.4990, 1.5022
Support Levels: 1.4899, 1.4866, 1.4834
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 96.256 LOW 95.94 BID 96.125 ASK 96.131 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 04:56
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 96.30 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 96.68 (R2) and 97.07 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Although market price remained relatively stable, depreciation below the next support level at 95.49 (S1) might assist to recovery formation evolvement. We expect that our intraday target at 95.10 (S2) and 94.70 (S3) could be exposed later on today in such case.
Resistance Levels: 96.30, 96.68, 97.07
Support Levels: 95.49, 95.10, 94.70
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 22 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 22 2013
Dimitriadis presents a resolution process to the Cypriot Parliament
The Cypriot Central Bank governor Panicós Dimitriadis has announced a bank restructuring plan that will allow banks to reopen on Tuesday. Dimitriadis said on Thursday that the bill would protect bank deposits up to €100K according to sources. Earlier, the Popular bank allowed costumers to withdrawal cash but limited by individual to 260 euros a day. Bloomberg has published that the bill has the approval of the Troika, however, the Eurogroup is weighing the close of the Cyprus Popular bank and the bank of Cyprus.
With European data disappointing and U.S. economic data surprising to the upside investors have returned to selling euros. Not only has tail risk in the Eurozone returned with the ECB threatening to pull support from Cyprus if an agreement is not reached by Monday but the outlook for growth has taken a turn for the worse, compounding the euro's problems. Eurozone manufacturing and service sector activity contracted at a faster pace in the month of March with the Eurozone PMI Composite index dropping to 46.5 from 47.9. While this is not the lowest reading that we have seen in the past 6 months, the cracks in Germany are reappearing. The Eurozone's largest economy is no longer able to provide umbrella support for the rest of the region and is now weakening alongside France, Italy and Spain. Tomorrow's German IFO report will most likely tell the same story of weakness in the Eurozone economy. The deteriorating growth outlook and risks posed by Cyprus and Italy (lets not forget about the unresolved elections) makes the euro less attractive than the dollar and should continue to add pressure on the currency.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/22032013/[/url]
Forex Economic Calendar :
2013-03-22 08:00 GMT | E.M.U. Cyprus Parliament Vote on Banking Restructuring, Wealth Fund Bill
2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Business Climate (Mar)
2013-03-22 09:00 GMT | Germany. IFO - Expectations (Mar)
2013-03-22 14:00 GMT | Belgium. Leading Indicator (Mar)
Forex News :
2013-03-22 05:59 GMT | EUR/USD falls below 1.29, Cyprus fails to get Russian aid
2013-03-22 05:51 GMT | USD/JPY breaks down to yesterday's 94.50 lows
2013-03-22 05:43 GMT | Cyprus mission in Russia fails
2013-03-22 05:21 GMT | GBP/USD looking at 1.5200 asks
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29244 LOW 1.28882 BID 1.28994 ASK 1.28999 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 41:37
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.2925 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.2942 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.2960 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further devaluation is limited to the supportive barrier at 1.2879 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as new step of downtrend expansion, targeting 1.2861 (S2) and 1.2844 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2925, 1.2942, 1.2960
Support Levels: 1.2879, 1.2861, 1.2844
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51945 LOW 1.5165 BID 1.51878 ASK 1.51888 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 41:38
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: A bullish momentum might occur if the price manages to climb above the key resistance level at 1.5208 (R1). Next targets on the way could be exposed at 1.5234 (R2) and 1.5260 (R3). Downwards scenario: We do expect some pull-backs development on the downside below the support level at 1.5156 (S1). Short-term momentum on the negative side might open the way towards to immediate supports at 1.5127 (S2) and 1.5100 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5260
Support Levels: 1.5156, 1.5127, 1.5100
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 95.132 LOW 94.545 BID 94.683 ASK 94.688 CHANGE -0.23% TIME 08 : 41:39
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Pair has settled negative bias on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the 95.14 (R1) resistance level. Violation here would suggest next intraday targets at 95.34 (R2) and 95.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market weakening is seen below the key support at 94.41 (S1). Loss here is required to allow further declines and expose our support barrier at 94.22 (S3) en route towards to final target for today at 94.02 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 95.14, 95.34, 95.55
Support Levels: 94.41, 94.22, 94.02
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Software | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 25 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 25 2013
Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities
Already finished Eurogroup and FMI press conference, attending IMF chief Christine Lagarde, Eurogroup Chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem, EU's commissioner for economic affairs Olli Rehn, European Central Bank (ECB) board member Jorg Asmussen, and ESM managing director Klaus Regling, the Eurogroup has reached an agreement with the Cypriot authorities “on the key elements necessary for a future macroeconomic adjustment programme,” the official Eurogroup statement reads. The agreement comes from all sides of the table, including all Euro area members states, along with the ECB, the IMF, and the ESM, also known as Troika. No further Cyprus parliament voting will be needed as the levy part of the deal has been “avoided”, EU chairman said, remarking “should be no doubts about that,” referring to any kind of discount on deposits below insured € 100k accounts.
Main focus on the deal has been reduced to the banking sector, also explained Mr Dijsselbloem, where "solution focuses on troubled banks," and the insured deposits. Among other measures, solution passes through a “split in a good and a bad bank”, said EU's chairman, with the “bad” one “gone” in some uncertain future time. Laiki Bank, the “bad” bank, “will ultimately disappear," said IMF's Lagarde. Bank of Cyprus would be the “good” one, where under € 100k secured deposits would be transferred. Asked if there is any chance the “bad bank” survives, Dijsselbloem said there could be a small part left, but that only time could tell. For the amount of haircuts in unsecured deposits, no concrete answers were also given, saying "numbers will have to be calculated," noted Dijsselbloem, adding: "can't put a number on that yet." Olli Rehn also referred to upcoming EU memorandum by mid April as a source for further answers. When questioned if all this agreement was mainly just to “buy some time,” EU commissioner denied it.-https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/25032013/
Forex Economic Calendar :
N/A | United States. Fed's William Dudley speech
2013-03-25 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BBA Mortgage Approvals (Feb)
2013-03-25 17:15 GMT | United States. Fed's Bernanke Speech
2013-03-25 21:45 GMT | New Zeland. Trade Balance (YoY) (Feb)
Forex News :
2013-03-25 06:24 GMT | EUR/USD still bearish despite the good news - UBS
2013-03-25 04:01 GMT | Eurogroup reaches agreement with Cypriot authorities
2013-03-25 01:42 GMT | EUR/JPY soars on Cyprus tentative deal
2013-03-25 01:13 GMT | AUD/USD holds below 1.0460
--------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30482 LOW 1.29414 BID 1.30342 ASK 1.30348 CHANGE 0.34% TIME 08 : 35:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The pair accelerates on the upside and determined positive market sentiment. If it manages to climb above the resistance level at 1.3049 (R1) there is a chance for a move towards to next targets at 1.3065 (R2) and 1.3081 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, pair looks overbought and possibility of correction is high. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.3010 (S1). Below here locates initial targets at 1.2993 (S2) and 1.2975 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3049, 1.3065, 1.3081
Support Levels: 1.3010, 1.2993, 1.2975
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52598 LOW 1.52233 BID 1.52434 ASK 1.52445 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 35:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook for the medium-term perspective remains bullish oriented. Clearance of next resistance level at 1.5260 (R1) would enable bullish pressure and might expose our next targets at 1.5291 (R2) and 1.5322 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term we expect pullback formation. Risk of market depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.5208 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5177 (S2) and 1.5144 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5260, 1.5291, 1.5322
Support Levels: 1.5208, 1.5177, 1.5144
------------------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 94.962 LOW 94.354 BID 94.657 ASK 94.664 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 08 : 35:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Market tested positive side today and formed gradual ascending move. Next resistance in focus stays at 94.97 (R1). If the break occur here we might see stronger move, targeting next attractive points at 95.20 (R2) and 95.43 (R3). Downwards scenario: Progress below the initial support level at 94.48 (S1) might trigger protective orders and stopped current consolidation development. Our intraday targets are seen at 94.25 (S2) and 94.01 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.97, 95.20, 95.43
Support Levels: 94.48, 94.25, 94.01
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex Software | Free Forex Demo Account | Best Forex Broker | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 26 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 26 2013
Cypriot central bank to meet tonight on capital controls
In an effort to avoid the money's outflow, the Cypriot central bank will meet tonight in an extraordinary session to introduce capital restrictions according to the Cyprus' president Anastasiades. The president also said, in a recent speech, the capital controls will be a temporary measure but difficult measures will be implemented in the following days. Meanwhile, Cypriot banks will open on Tuesday except Bank of Cyprus and Laiki. Earlier on the day, Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers, affirmed that the Cypriot plan would be used as template for another countries in the eurozone. Investors were afraid for more levys and capital restrictions across the union. Renewed jitters on Cyprus and fears of contagion to other indebted sovereigns in the bloc periphery have been weighting on EUR after the increased vulnerability seen in Cypriot deposits.
And speaking of anti-climaxes, Cyprus appears to have reached an agreement to avoid bankruptcy but, whilst it protects savers with less than €100,000 on account in Cypriot banks, bond holders in Laiki Bank will lose their funds and depositors with more than €100,000 in Laiki will lose a substantial part of those funds. The accounts will be frozen while the bank is closed down and most of its debt transferred to Bank of Cyprus and that could result in larger investors losing up to 90% of their funds. That isn’t going to make Cyprus popular with their Russian and Eastern European tax avoiders and it won’t make Europe popular with Russia either. That’s could be a problem because Russia controls a massive amount of the energy used by Europe. If Cyprus and the EU wanted to make enemies, other than invading Russia, they couldn’t have hatched a better plan.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-march-26-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-03-26 07:00 GMT | United Kingdom. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY)
2013-03-26 12:30 GMT | United States. Durable Goods Orders (Feb)
2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. Consumer Confidence (Mar)
2013-03-26 14:00 GMT | United States. New Home Sales (MoM) (Feb)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-03-26 05:51 GMT | AUD/USD unchanged as RBS Stevens speech a non event
2013-03-26 05:19 GMT | EUR/USD down to 1.2660 now and option
2013-03-26 01:41 GMT | USD/JPY higher on Kuroda's promises; Again
2013-03-26 01:32 GMT | GBP/JPY recovers ground as Kuroda speaks
Upwards scenario: EUR extended its decline versus the USD and determined negative medium-term technical outlook. However above the resistance at 1.2894 (R1) opens a route towards to next resistive measures at 1.2919 (R2) and 1.2945 (R3) Downwards scenario: In terms of technical levels, risk of price depreciation is seen below the next support level at 1.2829 (S1). Loss here would suggest to monitor marks at 1.2806 (S2) and 1.2784 (S3) as possible intraday targets.
Upwards scenario: Instrument formed fresh low yesterday however retail trades sentiment shifted to the bullish side on the short-term perspective. Further market rise is limited now to the key barrier at 1.5208 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 1.5234 (R2) and last one at 1.5261 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish further gains might lead to the price depreciation. Next immediate support could be found at 1.5142 (S1). Break here is required to open route towards to our targets at 1.5118 (S2) and 1.5093 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5208, 1.5234, 1.5261
Support Levels: 1.5142, 1.5118, 1.5093
Upwards scenario: Medium- term tendency remains bearish as both moving averages are pointing down. Though risk of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 94.45 (R1). Clearance here would open way towards to next targets at 94.67 (R2) and 94.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of market decline is seen below the key support level at 93.86 (S1). Loss here might downgrade currency rate towards to the next supportive means at 93.64 (S2) and 93.43 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 94.45, 94.67, 94.90
Support Levels: 93.86, 93.64, 93.43
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 27 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 27 2013
European Parliament considers bailing-in large depositors
The euro dropped in the European afternoon on information from Reuters that the European Parliament would be inclined to bail-in big savers, who hold deposits of over 100,000 euros at distressed banks. MEP Gunnar Hokmark, who is taking part in creating a new law aimed at dealing with such banks told Reuters that: "Deposits below 100,000 euros are protected … deposits above 100,000 euros are not protected and shall be treated as part of the capital that can be bailed in." Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments on Monday, suggesting that the bailout deal struck between Cyprus and the Troika might be a model for rescue programs for other EU countries in the future, caused the European stock markets to drop sharply in late trading.
Wall Street rises despite bad US data and Cyprus. The US stocks market traded higher on Tuesday as market didn't pay much attention to the lower-than-expected US consumer confidence but better-than-expected home prices. The Dow surged to new all-time high. The Dow Jones advaced 111.90 points or 0.77% to close at 14,559.65. The S&P 500 added 12.08 points or 0.78% to end the day at 1,563.77. And the Nasdaq Composite gained 17.18 points or 0.53% to finish at 3,252.48.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-march-27-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-03-27 09:30 GMT | United Kingdom. UK Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q4)
2013-03-27 10:00 GMT | E.M.U. Consumer Confidence (Mar)
2013-03-27 12:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Consumer Price Index
2013-03-27 14:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-03-27 07:24 GMT | EUR/USD muted after German data
2013-03-27 06:25 GMT | Time to build a short position in JPY again – RBS
2013-03-27 04:28 GMT | USD/JPY climbs above 94.80 helped by USD buying across the board
2013-03-27 03:27 GMT | NZD/USD, exporters keen buyers of NZD dips – BNZ
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed above the local peak at 1.2868 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 1.2890 (R2) onto 1.2912 (R3). Downwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term technical outlook would be negative. Key support level lie at 1.2837 (S1), below here opens a route towards to our initial targets at 1.2815 (S2) and 1.2793 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2868, 1.2890, 1.2912
Support Levels: 1.2837, 1.2815, 1.2793
Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSDUpwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.5170 (R1), subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5190 (R2) and 1.5210 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: If the price failed to establish further positive bias today, we expect to see retest of our key support level at 1.5147 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial targets at 1.5128 (S2) and 1.5 109 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5170, 1.5190, 1.5210
Support Levels: 1.5147, 1.5128, 1.5109
Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 94.90 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 95.08 (R2) and 95.25 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument might retest our next support level at 94.58 (S1) later on today. Market decline below it would create bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 94.40 (S2). Final support for today locates at 94.22 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.90, 95.08, 95.25
Support Levels: …..
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Currency Converter | ECN Broker | Forex Trading Account | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 28 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 28 2013
Capital controls in Cyprus to affect international transactions
he Cypriot government has revealed the details of the capital controls it intends to impose on transfers before banks reopen on Thursday. The restrictions are aimed at preventing an outflow of money and are supposed to last seven days. The capital controls, which will affect all accounts regardless of their currency, will involve a ban on taking out sums of money in cash greater than 3000 euros on one trip out of the country and a monthly 5000 euro limit on credit and debit card transactions abroad. Additionally, cashing cheques will be prohibited and savings accounts frozen until their expiry date. Restrictions on ATM withdrawals have not been listed among the capital control measures, even though they currently exist.
The financial markets are still mulling over the repercussions of the Cyprus drama and their angst is being fuelled by comments by Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, that the EU sees the Cyprus deal as a template for any further bailouts. i.e. bond holders will lose their fund entirely and larger savers would have some of their funds syphoned off to aid the bailout. That was later denied according to a report on Bloomberg but investors with funds in EU banks are understandably edgy and all eyes will be on the Cypriot withdrawals over the weeks ahead. The fear of a run on European banks and the political pressure that would produce is ever-present and there are many reports about the rise of the German Anti-Euro political party. The Euro remains at the weaker end of its range in anticipation of those events
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-march-28-2013/[/url]
2013-03-28 02:23 GMT | AUD/USD turns bearish as stocks decline in Asia
2013-03-28 02:22 GMT | USD/JPY dips to 94.10 lows post-Kuroda
2013-03-28 02:03 GMT | New Zealand: M3 Money Supply (YoY) (Feb): 6.6% vs 6.4%
2013-03-28 01:40 GMT | EUR/AUD keeps pushing below 1.2250
Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The low of the 26-03-2013 offers an important resistive level at 1.2829 (R1). Any penetration above it might shift the balance to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 1.2859 (R2) and 1.2889 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend evolvement might occur below the immediate support level at 1.2752 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable our next targets at 1.2722 (S2) and 1.2693 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.2829, 1.2859, 1.2889
Support Levels: 1.2752, 1.2722, 1.2693
Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD
Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies above the local high at 1.5149 (R1). If the break occurs here, next attractive level could be exposed at 1.5165 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5181 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possibility of market decline is seen below the next support level at 1.5127 (S1). Loss here would suggest next targets at 1.5110 (S2) and 1.5092 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5149, 1.5165, 1.5181
Support Levels: 1.5127, 1.5110, 1.5092
Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 94.27 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 94.42 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 94.58 (R3). Downwards scenario: However the downside direction remains favored according to the technical indicators. Fresh low offers a key support measure at 93.98 (S1). Decline below it would enable next targets located at 93.83 (S2) and 93.69 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.27, 94.42, 94.58
Support Levels: 93.98, 93.83, 93.69
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Best Forex Trading Platform | ECN Broker Account | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 29 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 29 2013
The Cyprus moment
The euro zone could be slipping into a new period of turbulence even before it has had a chance to return to growth. And yet the improvement previously discussed in these pages has been confirmed: borrowing conditions for governments have improved and some, such as Ireland, have made a successful return to the markets. Ratings on sovereign debt have stabilised. One sign of an easing of financial tensions in the zone is that the internal balances in the Eurosystem, as reflected in Target 2 balances, have narrowed to a degree. These are encouraging but fragile signs that could be compromised by the difficulties in managing the Cypriot crisis or by the political uncertainty in Italy. Is there a new European crisis brewing in Cyprus? The country’s banking system needs to be recapitalised, failing which the European Central Bank (ECB) – which is not responsible for solvency issues – could cease to provide support. However, given the size of the banking sector (seven times GDP) the sums in play by far exceed the country’s repayment capacity. The EUR 17bn of total needs (of which EUR 10bn for banks) account for one year’s GDP for Cyprus, which is only the 26th biggest economy in European Union. A loan of this amount from the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) would push government debt up to the unsustainable level of around 200% of GDP. The main risk would then be the snuffing out of the Cypriot economy for many years, with no certainty that any financial aid would in fact be repaid.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure - Prices Index (YoY) (Feb)
2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Personal Income (MoM) (Feb)
2013-03-29 12:30 GMT | United States. US Personal Spending (Feb)
2013-03-29 13:55 GMT | United States. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-03-29 07:07 GMT | EUR/USD hovering around 1.2800
2013-03-29 06:00 GMT | GBP/USD holding around 1.5200
2013-03-29 05:36 GMT | Japan data disappoints; Yen advances a bit
2013-03-29 03:53 GMT | EUR/JPY gravitating around 120.70
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28367 LOW 1.27934 BID 1.28082 ASK 1.28086 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 09 : 14:14
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.2836 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.2859 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.2884 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand price could retest our next support level at 1.2787 (S1) later on today. Successful penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2764 (S2) and 1.2740 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2836, 1.2859, 1.2884
Support Levels: 1.2787, 1.2764, 1.2740
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52187 LOW 1.5177 BID 1.51814 ASK 1.51827 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 09 : 14:15
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Technically medium-term bias remains positive. Next resistive structure holds above the local high of the day - at 1.5218 (R1). Break here would suggest marks at 1.5231 (R2) and 1.5244 (R3) as next visible targets. Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.5167 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.5153 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum on the downside we would suggest final target for today at 1.5140 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5218, 1.5231, 1.5244
Support Levels: 1.5167, 1.5153, 1.5140
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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.299 LOW 93.973 BID 94.046 ASK 94.061 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 09 : 14:16
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 94.25 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 94.38 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 94.51 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Fractal level accumulation on the 93.95 (S1) zone offers an important technical level. Discounted value of USDJPY might push through this mark and enable next visible target at 93.82 (S2) en route to support at 93.69 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.25, 94.38, 94.51
Support Levels: 93.95, 93.82, 93.69
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
While it has been and will continue to be an exceedingly quiet morning in the foreign exchange market with most of the major markets closed for the Easter holidays, there were still have a few pieces of U.S. data released this morning. Personal income rose 1.1% in the month of February while personal spending rose 0.7%. USD/JPY barely reacted to the news because there's no one trading today but both numbers were better than expected and consistent with a continued recovery in the U.S. economy. The stronger increase in incomes versus spending is also a healthy trend that makes the light at the end of the tunnel shine slightly brighter for the Federal Reserve. The final University of Michigan Consumer Confidence numbers will be released later this morning but no revisions are expected and so the data should be a nonevent for the U.S. dollar.
Now that the situation in Cyprus has been pacified, the focus in Europe has shifted back to Italy where there were rumors that Berlusconi is open to a coalition with Bersani. He has since denied this possibility, saying instead that a grand coalition with an agreement on program reforms is the only acceptable option. Recent polls suggest that 50% of Italians are ready to vote again. - [url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/01042013/[/url]
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28129 LOW 1.2771 BID 1.27834 ASK 1.27842 CHANGE -0.25% TIME 08 : 02:10
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: The recent price acceleration on the upside suggests a possible move higher ahead. Next on tap is resistive barrier at 1.2810 (R1) on the way towards to higher targets at 1.2844 (R2) and 1.2866 (R3). Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.2768 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.2742 (S2) and then 1.2701 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2810, 1.2844, 1.2866
Support Levels: 1.2768, 1.2742, 1.2701
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52018 LOW 1.51777 BID 1.51892 ASK 1.51904 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 02:10
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Medium-term negative bias pressure the price lower however instrument might find buyers above the important resistance level at 1.5207 (R1). Break here might open route towards to our initial targets at 1.5231 (R2) and 1.5256 (R3). Downwards scenario: Opportunities for bearish oriented traders are seen below the important support level at 1.5182 (S1). Loss here would open door for the downtrend expansion towards to interim targets at 1.5161 (S2) and 1.5133 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5207, 1.5231, 1.5256
Support Levels: 1.5182, 1.5161, 1.5133
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USDJPY :
HIGH 94.373 LOW 93.832 BID 93.943 ASK 93.950 CHANGE -0.28% TIME 08 : 02:11
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 94.34 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 94.59 (R2) and 94.86 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the key support barrier at 93.85 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to our next targets at 93.60 (S2) and potentially to 93.34 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.34, 94.59, 94.86
Support Levels: 93.85, 93.60, 93.34
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN Forex Trading Accounts | Currency Converter | Forex School | FXCC [/url] )
Spain will revised down its 2013 GDP forecast to -1.0%; Negotiating new deficit target
Spain is discussing with the European union a new 2013 budget deficit target around 6% of the GDP, the current target is 4.5%, according to a Reuters information citing Spanish officials sources. The Spanish government needs to renegotiate a new target as they would revise down the Kingdom of Spain 2013 GDP forecast to -1.0% from the -0.5% expected before.
Today's Asia-Pacific session has had a common denominator in the form of a falling USD across the board, and specially against Yen, that has seen a 1-month fresh high printing a low at 92.55 in the USD/JPY pair, something not seen since early March. Strangely enough, Gold has printed fresh session highs at $1604 at the same time. The other main driver of the season has come from Australia and the RBA holding rates at 3%, with scope to ease further if market conditions are met, the statement said. Local share markets traded in a mixed way with Tokyo leading the loses at some point down more than -2%, but last at -0.83%, with Shanghai -0.38%, and Kospi -0.44%, while Australian ASX is up +0.34%, and Hang-Seng +0.10%. As the London open gets closer, after a long 4-day weekend closed for holidays, the USD finds some bids, making EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD to ease a bit, while USD/JPY recovers some ground. European futures markets show a mixed open ahead, with small advances and declines in main equity indexes.
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FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-02 04:51 GMT | EUR/USD adjusts value within bearish context
2013-04-02 03:58 GMT | USD/JPY enters 92.40/75 demand after 92.95 break
2013-04-02 03:46 GMT | AUD/USD higher as RBA on holds
2013-04-02 03:40 GMT | RBA holds rates at 3%; statement more neutral
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28775 LOW 1.28399 BID 1.28616 ASK 1.28621 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 01:01
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD gained momentum and determined medium-term positive bias. Next hurdle ahead is seen at 1.2878 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2892 (R2) and 1.2907 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any penetration below the support level at 1.2844 (S1) might create more scope for the instrument weakness in near-term perspective. We are looking to our immediate supports at 1.2830 (S2) and 1.2815 (S3) as next possible targets.
Resistance Levels: 1.2878, 1.2892, 1.2907
Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2830, 1.2815
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52584 LOW 1.52183 BID 1.52374 ASK 1.52384 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 01:02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Further uptrend evolvement is limited now to the local high at 1.5259 (R1). Break here is required to enable higher targets at 1.5269 (R2) and 1.5279 (R3). Downwards scenario: A downside pressure could be maintained if the price penetrates below the key supportive measure at 1.5225 (S1). Clearance here would open way for a price move towards to lower supports at 1.5214 (S2) and 1.5203 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5259, 1.5269, 1.5279
Support Levels: 1.5225, 1.5214, 1.5203
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USDJPY :
HIGH 93.322 LOW 92.565 BID 92.840 ASK 92.845 CHANGE -0.42% TIME 08 : 01:03
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Instrument showed excessive losses last few days and we expect some stabilization ahead. However appreciation above the next resistance at 93.03 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to our next targets at 93.30 (R2) and 93.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low at 92.56 (S1) offers a key supportive barrier on the way of downtrend development. A dip below it would suggest next intraday targets at 92.32 (S2) and potentially 92.08 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 93.03, 93.30, 93.55
Support Levels: 92.56, 92.32, 92.08
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Best ECN Trading Account | Forex Trading Education | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Mar 20 2013
