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Cyprus FinMin steps down after finalizing bailout deal
Cypriot finance minister Michael Sarris submitted his resignation on Tuesday, just after concluding bailout negotiations with Troika officials. Labor minister Haris Georgiadis has been nominated to the post shortly after. According to the Greek newspaper Kathimerini, other changes in the Cypriot government might follow today. It also suggests that Michael Sarris was replaced due to the Cyprus president Nicos Anastasiades’s dissatisfaction with the way he handled the crisis. As for the bailout deal, it was agreed that Cyprus would receive the first tranche of the aid in May. The fiscal adjustment period has been extended until 2018. The bailout loans will carry interest of 2.5% and repayment, spread over 12 years, is to begin in 10 years time. Michael Sarris also said that it was uncertain when the capital controls could be lifted completely.
Popular opinion in Brussels is that the worst outcome for the euro currency union would be if one of the member-states were forced out. On this pretext, the ECB has so far bailed out the banking systems of Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and Spain. When Cyprus faced a run on its banks two weeks ago, the eurocrats stepped in with a new proposal to shore up reserves: forfeiture of 9.9% on deposits over €100K and 6.7% below that level. This has come to be known as a "bail in." The reaction was immediate and intense. Cypriots took to the streets to protest the anticipated losses and breach of the government's deposit insurance guarantees for amounts under €100K; riot police were deployed. The Russian government was upset it was not consulted and that its citizens' deposits would face even steeper losses. The talking heads lamented the grave precedent that this move would set.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-03-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR
2013-04-03 08:30 GMT UK. PMI Construction (Mar)
2013-04-03 09:00 GMT EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
2013-04-03 13:15 GMT USA. US ADP Employment Change (Mar)
2013-04-03 14:00 GMT USA. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Mar)
FOREX NEWS
2013-04-03 05:54 GMT EUR/USD regains 1.2800
2013-04-03 03:44 GMT Precious metals resume the selling off
2013-04-03 03:24 GMT GBP/JPY barely above 141.00 dragged on Pound weakness
2013-04-03 01:27 GMT GBP/USD breaks into 2-week low; no significant demand until 1.4950/1.50
Forex Technical Analysis EURUSD
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: market sentiment is shifted to the negative side after the losses provided yesterday however market appreciation is possible above the next resistance at 1.2826 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2844 (R2) and 1.2860 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low at 1.2794 (S1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.2777 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.2761 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2826, 1.2844, 1.2860
Support Levels: 1.2794, 1.2777, 1.2761
Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD broke all supportive means yesterday and determined clear negative bias on the medium-term timeframe. Possibility of market appreciation is seen above the resistance level at 1.5109 (R1). Break here is required to validate next targets at 1.5125 (R2) and 1.5141 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of the further downtrend formation is seen below the support at 1.5074 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 1.5059 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 1.5043 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5109, 1.5125, 1.5141
Support Levels: 1.5074, 1.5059, 1.5043
Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY
Upwards scenario: Price deviates from its initial downtrend formation on the hourly chart. Local high at 93.67 (R1) is a key technical point on the upside. Penetration above would suggest higher targets at 93.84 (R2) and 93.99 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our next support level is seen at 93.32 (S1). Any penetration below this level would increase likelihood of the downtrend development and suggest bearish priority in direction. Intraday support levels are placed at the 93.14 (S2) and 92.95 (S3) price levels.
Resistance Levels: 93.67, 93.84, 93.99
Support Levels: 93.32, 93.14, 92.95
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
The IMF announced on Wednesday that its contribution to the Cyprus bailout would amount to 1 billion euros. It has also presented the harsh conditions of the aid. These include increases in taxes: the corporate tax is to be raised from 10% to 12.5%, while the income tax from 15% to 30%. Additionally, Cyprus is required to introduce more austerity measures in order to reach a 4% GDP surplus target in 2018. "There will be protection for the most vulnerable groups. The social welfare system will be reviewed to streamline administration costs, minimize the overlap of existing programs, and improve their targeting to ensure that public resources reach those in need," IMF chief Christine Lagarde said on Wednesday. She also added that the funds should be approved by the IMF board at the beginning of next month.
The euro traded slightly higher against the U.S. dollar ahead of the European Central Bank's monetary policy announcement. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged but given the recent weakness in German economic data and problems in Cyprus, there's speculation that the ECB could lay the foundation for a rate cut. If that were the case, it would be signaled in Mario Draghi's post monetary policy meeting press conference. There are plenty of reasons for why the ECB may be warming to the idea of more stimulus but German stocks have recently climbed to 5 year highs and the EUR has fallen – two factors that help to support the region's economy. That may not be enough to wash away the ECB's concerns but it's a factor in this week's central bank meeting. Either way, we don't expect any optimism from the ECB and pessimism alone could sink the EUR if Draghi even hints that a rate cut is possible. The cracks are beginning to show in Germany and Cyprus could be the first of many weaker southern European nations such as Slovenia to seek emergency funding from the ECB. To preempt some of these difficulties, Draghi may want to ease. When the ECB plans to change monetary policy, they usually like to prepare the market for the move by dropping hints early. However if we are wrong and Draghi sounds calm and unconcerned about the recent deterioration in economic data and the problems in Cyprus and Italy, it would be just what the EUR/USD needs to stage a stronger recovery towards 1.30.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-04-2013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS
2013-04-04 04:50 GMT USD/JPY jumps above 93.5 as BoJ delivers
2013-04-04 04:33 GMT EUR awaits ECB frozen near 1.2850
2013-04-04 02:50 GMT Gold could fall sharply another $200 – RBS
2013-04-04 00:43 GMT AUD/USD higher on better data than expected
Upwards scenario: Market remains sideways oriented. Next hurdle on the upside might be found at 1.2853 (R1). Break here would open road towards to our interim aim at 1.2869 (R2) and enable final intraday resistive measure at 1.2883 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 1.2824 (S1) would open a route for a recovery phase. Further market decline would then be targeting next supportive measures at 1.2807 (S2) and 1.2790 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2826, 1.2844, 1.2860
Support Levels: 1.2794, 1.2777, 1.2761
----------------
Forex Technical Analysis GBPUSD
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.5141 (R1). Appreciation above it would suggest us about the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 1.5158 (R2) and 1.5175 (R3). Downwards scenario: Instrument has comfortably declined during the Asian session and further downside extension is protected now by support level at 1.5098 (S1). Loss here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.5082 (S2) and 1.5065 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.5141, 1.5158, 1.5175
Support Levels: 1.5098, 1.5082, 1.5065
-------------
Forex Technical Analysis USDJPY
Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our next resistive mean at 94.37 (R1) next visible targets could be exposed at 94.55 (R2) and 94.72 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: The short oriented traders expected to be in play below the next support level at 93.87 (S1) to confirm downside evolvement. Clearance of this level I required to open way towards to our next targets at 93.68 (S2) and 93.49 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 94.37, 94.55, 94.72
Support Levels: 93.87, 93.68, 93.49
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex School | Currency Converter | Best Forex Trading Software | FXCC [/url] )
The euro area has had a rough few weeks: Cyprus agreed a bailout program that will decimate its economy, Italy’s Pier Luigi Bersani, the Democratic Party leader, failed to put together a government, borrowing costs for businesses in the peripheral countries continue to rise, unemployment reached record highs, and purchasing manager indices across the region greatly underperformed expectations. There may be one more piece of bad news to add to the pile before the week is out: Portugal’s budget for 2013 may fall apart, and with it the Portuguese government. During his New Year’s Day address, Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva called on the constitutional court to rule whether the budget, which consists of tax increases and spending cuts worth 5.3 billion euros ($6.8 billion), is legal.
If the court rules against the budget, an estimated 2 billion euros of the austerity measures may be compromised. This would immediately derail Portugal’s progress toward hitting its fiscal targets, only weeks after the country’s international creditors relaxed them. Rejection of the budget could also cause the government to collapse if the ruling Social Democratic Party cannot find alternative austerity measures to get Portugal back on track with its bailout program. It is unclear exactly when the constitutional court will make its ruling, but it may be before the week is out. Concerns over what the court might say could account for an increase in Portuguese two-year bond yields to over 3.8 percent today, before falling back to around 3 percent again later in the day. This isn’t what a country looking to exit its bailout program and regain full market access needs. -FXstreet.com
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05042013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-05 04:35 GMT | USD/JPY dives below 96.30 on massive taking profit
2013-04-05 04:19 GMT | EUR/USD negates market sentiment climbing above 1.29
2013-04-05 03:41 GMT | AUD/USD dips to 1.0400 lows
2013-04-05 02:09 GMT | EUR/JPY biggest single day rally on record above 125.30
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29379 LOW 1.29186 BID 1.29188 ASK 1.29196 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 49:51
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD trapped to the consolidation phase after the upside development. Yesterday high at 1.2950 (R1) offers a good resistance level. Break here is required to take the pair towards to initial targets at 1.2977 (R2) and 1.3003 (R3). Downwards scenario: Hourly chart technical indicators readings are positive though Immediate focus comes on the next support level at 1.2915 (S1). Any penetration below it would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2889 (S2) and 1.2860 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2950, 1.2977, 1.3003
Support Levels: 1.2915, 1.2889, 1.2860
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52428 LOW 1.5214 BID 1.52279 ASK 1.52290 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 49:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD lost momentum after the gains provided yesterday. In terms of technical levels next resistance level could be exposed at 1.5259 (R1). Further appreciation above it would enable intraday targets at 1.5284 (R2) and 1.5309 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back formation might get acceleration below the support level at 1.5208 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5182 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 1.5158 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5259, 1.5284, 1.5309
Support Levels: 1.5208, 1.5182, 1.5158
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.195 LOW 96.134 BID 96.314 ASK 96.321 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 49:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however clearance of our next resistive barrier at 97.23 (R1) is required to push the price towards to our next visible targets at 97.63 (R2) and 98.04 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support level at 95.94 (S1) might maintain a negative tone and prolong corrective action. Price devaluation would then be targeting our supportive measures at 95.54 (S2) and 95.08 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 97.23, 97.63, 98.04
Support Levels: 95.94, 95.54, 95.08
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex School | Currency Converter | Best Forex Trading Software | FXCC [/url] )
Portugal to slash spending after court ruling setback
Following the Portuguese constitutional court decision last Friday, in which certain austerity measures from the 2013 budget were rejected, Portugal's Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho said on Sunday the government will implement further cuts to compensate the unexpected budgetary setback, so that it can meet targets set by the Troika. Passos Coelho said in a televised address to the country that the court ruling was, cited by Reuters, "a serious obstacle for and risk" this year and next, but showed commitment to comply with the EU/IMF rescue program.
The Prime Minister ruled out an increase in taxes but one of the measures being explored was to cut on more spending, as mentioned above. The government is also seeking more flexible conditions from international lenders, so that they can successfully complete the bailout programme in 2014. According to Reuters: "Analysts expect Portugal to be able to agree replacement measures with the European Union and International Monetary Fund to make up for the court ruling, which could cost it between 900 million and 1.3 billion euros."
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-april-08-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR
2013-04-08 10:00 GMT | Germany. Industrial Production s.a. w.d.a. (YoY)
2013-04-08 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
2013-04-08 23:15 GMT | USA. US Fed's Bernanke Speech
2013-04-08 23:50 GMT | Japan. BoJ Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
FOREX NEWS
2013-04-08 04:26 GMT | GBP/JPY moves above 151 first time in 3 years
2013-04-08 03:41 GMT | EUR/USD next upside target near 1.3115 – BBH
2013-04-08 03:22 GMT | USD/JPY to remain bid; 100.00/101.50 eyed – RBS
2013-04-08 02:47 GMT | AUD/USD to stay above parity for the remainder of 2013 – NAB
Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 1.3040 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 1.3063 (R2) and then final aim would be 1.3087 (R3). Downwards scenario: Our key support level locates below the session low at 1.2972 (S1) mark. Break here is required to prolong bearish extension and validate our intraday targets at 1.2949 (S2) and 1.2926 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3040, 1.3063, 1.3087
Support Levels: 1.2972, 1.2949, 1.2926
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.5363 (R1) mark. Break here would suggest next interim target at 1.5388 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 1.5413 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5301 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next initial targets at 1.5276 (S2) and 1.5251 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5363, 1.5388, 1.5413
Support Levels: 1.5301, 1.5276, 1.5251
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 98.85 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 99.23 (R2) and 99.60 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible bull back on the hourly chart might face next hurdle at 98.07 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next retracement target at 97.66 (S2) en route to final aim at 97.25 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.85, 99.23, 99.60
Support Levels: 98.07, 97.66, 97.25
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex Blog | Currency Converter | Forex Trading Platform | FXCC [/url] )
German Fin Min urges Portugal to find new austerity measures
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said in a radio interview on Monday that Portugal should come up with a new set of austerity measures, after the country’s high court rejected parts of the plan put forward by the Portuguese government, deeming them illegal. “Portugal has made lots of progress in the last year to gain access to financial markets,” the German finance minister said. “But after this (constitutional court) decision it will have to find new measures.” Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho has already announced plans of carrying out cuts in health and education spending, in order to meet the targets set by the Troika and avoid asking for a second rescue package. He assured however that no new tax hikes would be introduced in 2013.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09042013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-09 04:43 GMT | EUR/USD hits 3 ½ week high; fresh upside potential
2013-04-09 03:11 GMT | NZD/USD testing long term resistance below 0.85
2013-04-09 02:14 GMT | USD/CAD finds 1.0160 double bottom; upside risks - TDS
2013-04-09 01:48 GMT | AUD/USD higher on China CPI
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30679 LOW 1.3009 BID 1.30454 ASK 1.30461 CHANGE 0.28% TIME 08 : 39:23
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price stabilized near it local high’s however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 1.3069 (R1). Clearance here might pull the pair towards to eventual targets at 1.3095 (R2) and 1.3120 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, price depreciation below the support barrier at 1.3037 (S1) might provide sufficient space for the recovery action. In such case e we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3012 (R2) and then 1.2987 (R3)
Resistance Levels: 1.3069, 1.3095, 1.3120
Support Levels: 1.3037, 1.3012, 1.2987
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52781 LOW 1.52508 BID 1.52717 ASK 1.52722 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 08 : 39:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our technical outlook on the medium-term perspective remains positive. Further market appreciation is possible above the key resistance at 1.5293 (R1). Next targets could be found at 1.5318 (R2) and 1.5341 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 1.5237 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 1.5214 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 1.5190 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5293, 1.5318, 1.5341
Support Levels: 1.5237, 1.5214, 1.5190
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.663 LOW 99.091 BID 99.207 ASK 99.213 CHANGE -0.15% TIME 08 : 39:24
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Upwards penetration is limited tow to the next resistance level at 99.65 (R1). Clearance here might open a route towards to our initial target at 100.12 (R2) and then further price appreciation would be targeting resistance at 100.57 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, our bearish expectations remain intact below the key support level at 98.86 (S1). Price penetration below it would allow further declines towards to our initial targets at 98.37 (S2) and 97.89 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.65, 100.12, 100.57
Support Levels: 98.86, 98.37, 97.89
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
Moody’s maintains a negative outlook on Spanish rating
Moody’s rating agency announced today that it maintains a negative outlook on Spain’s Baa3 credit rating. One of the main reasons for this decision was the agency’s conviction that the country will fail to reach the 4.5% deficit target fixed by the EU. In Moody’s opinion, Spain will only manage to bring down its deficit to 6% this year, failing thus to reach the 4.5% target required by Brussels. In the report, which was released in the European morning, the agency assures that the continuous deviations from the deficit objectives and the recurring revisions of the estimates carried out by the Spanish government undermine its credibility. Even though the agency acknowledges the country’s fiscal consolidation efforts and highlights the good results obtained in 2012, it also warns against the multiple threats to the Spanish economy.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10042013/[/url]
N/A | China. New Loans (Mar)
2013-04-10 17:00 GMT | USA. 10-Year Note Auction
2013-04-10 18:00 GMT | USA. US FOMC Minutes
2013-04-10 22:30 GMT | New Zeland. Business NZ PMI (Mar)
2013-04-10 04:29 GMT | EUR/USD, above 1.31 where true strength test begins
2013-04-10 03:31 GMT | NZD/JPY at 95 not outside the bounds of possibility - BNZ
2013-04-10 02:26 GMT | AUD/JPY pushes again above 104 highs post China trade deficit
2013-04-10 02:22 GMT | AUD/USD strengthens bullish case; 1.0516 new high post China trade
--------------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30907 LOW 1.30731 BID 1.30754 ASK 1.30763 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08:35:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the moving averages out technical outlook would be positive. Yesterday high offers next resistance level at 1.3103 (R1). Any price action above it would suggest next targets at 1.3128 (R2) and 1.3154 (S3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 1.3068 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 1.3042 (S2) and 1.3015 (S3) might be triggered.
Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3128, 1.3154
Support Levels: 1.3068, 1.3042, 1.3015
-------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53389 LOW 1.53125 BID 1.53201 ASK 1.53205 CHANGE 0.02% TIME 08:35:49
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.5341 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.5361 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.5382 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.5311 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.5292 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.5271 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5341, 1.5361, 1.5382
Support Levels: 1.5311, 1.5292, 1.5271
---------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.314 LOW 98.914 BID 99.129 ASK 99.135 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08:35:50
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting busy session ahead however upwards extension above the resistance at 99.65 (R1) level would keep the bullish structure intact and validate our next intraday targets at 100.12 (R2) and 100.57 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 98.74 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 98.32 (S2) and 97.89 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 99.65, 100.12, 100.57
Support Levels: 98.74, 98.32, 97.89
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Currency Trading Blog | Forex Account | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC [/url] )
Eurozone finance ministers, who are holding talks in Dublin today, have released a statement on Cyprus in which they assure that the country has met all the requirements, allowing for the bailout deal to be completed. According to the document: The Eurogroup notes with satisfaction that the Cypriot authorities have implemented decisive bank resolution, restructuring and recapitalisation measures to address the fragile and unique situation of Cyprus' financial sector. The Eurogroup commends the authorities for their demonstrated resolve in implementing these important measures in a tight timeframe and reiterates its appreciation for the efforts made by the Cypriot citizens over the last weeks.” Eurozone finance ministers expect the bailout fund ESM board to give the green light to the proposal of granting Cyprus a 10 billion euro bailout on April 24. The first tranche of the aid could then be released by mid-may.
Following the release of the statement on the Cypriot bailout, Eurozone finance ministers, who hold talks today in Dublin, announced that the loan repayment for Ireland and Portugal would be extended. Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem confirmed that the Eurozone finance ministers agreed to give seven more years to Portugal and Ireland to repay their bailout loans amounting to 78 billion euros and 85 billion euros, respectively. He also informed that the maturity extension will most probably be approved at the upcoming Ecofin meeting, which kicks off later today. EU Commissioner Olli Rehn expressed hope that Ecofin would give the green light to the measure, which in his opinion is an important step on the road to exiting the rescue program.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/13536/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-15 09:00 GMT | EMU. Trade Balance s.a. (Feb)
2013-04-15 12:30 GMT | USA. NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Apr)
2013-04-15 13:00 GMT | USA. Total Net TIC Flows (Feb)
2013-04-15 14:00 GMT | USA. NAHB Housing Market Index (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-15 04:34 GMT | Draghi testimony key in the week ahead for euro – UBS
2013-04-15 04:08 GMT | EUR/JPY, stops below 127.70 tripped
2013-04-15 03:45 GMT | USD/CAD catching a firm bid, trading up 43 pips at 1.0184
2013-04-15 03:08 GMT | NZD/USD again below 0.85
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3103 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.3128 (R2) and 1.3154 (R3) Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low – 1.3043 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3015 (S2) and 1.2988 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3103, 1.3128, 1.3154
Support Levels: 1.3043, 1.3015, 1.2988
Upwards scenario: Next resistance level is seen at 1.5355 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5384 (R2) and 1.5415 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: An important technical level is seen at 1.5306 (S1). Market decline below this level might initiate bearish pressure and drive market price towards to our next targets at 1.5282 (S2) and 1.5257 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5355, 1.5384, 1.5415
Support Levels: 1.5306, 1.5282, 1.5257
Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 98.62 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 99.17 (R2) and 99.71 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 97.55 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 97.08 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 96.57 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.62, 99.17, 99.71
Support Levels: 97.55, 97.08, 96.57
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Portugal unveils new austerity measures to appease the Troika
Troika inspectors arrived in Lisbon on Monday in order to carry out the seventh review of the country’s bailout program, since it had received 78 billion euros of aid in 2011. Portugal had to come up with new austerity measures to meet the budget gap of about 1.3 billion euros, which emerged after the Portuguese Constitutional court ruled that four of the measures proposed by the PM Pedro Passos Coelho’s government were illegal.
Currently the 2 billion euro bailout tranche is blocked. If the Troika’s review has a positive conclusion, the money will be released and Portugal will also have a better chance of obtaining the 7 year loan repayment extension, approved on Friday by Ecofin. Passos Coelho said today that the additional 600 million euros would come from cuts in healthcare, education , social security and public services and another 600 million euros from reductions of administrative costs. These new austerity measures have been heavily criticized by the left-wing opposition and labor unions.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-04-16 09:00 GMT | Germany. ZEW Survey - Economic Sentiment (Apr)
2013-04-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Mar)
2013-04-16 13:00 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-04-16 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-16 03:38 GMT | Kiwi retreats as macro risks weigh on sentiment
2013-04-16 03:32 GMT | EUR/USD holds above 1.3035
2013-04-16 02:13 GMT | Gold has peaked, beginnings of a new chapter - RBS
2013-04-16 01:57 GMT | EUR/AUD rockets higher as China Data spurs Aussie weakness
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30815 LOW 1.30305 BID 1.30747 ASK 1.30753 CHANGE 0.3% TIME 08 : 33:21
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: A bullish tone dominates during the Asian session and further buying interest might arise above the next resistance at 1.3108 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.3143 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an increase towards to 1.3179 (R3). Downwards scenario: Key support level lies at 1.3043 (S1). Penetration below it might change near-term tone to the negative side and expose our initial targets at 1.3008 (S2) and 1.2969 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3108, 1.3143, 1.3179
Support Levels: 1.3043, 1.3008, 1.2969
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53097 LOW 1.52729 BID 1.53043 ASK 1.53049 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 33:22
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Next hurdle that limit uptrend development lies above the fractal level at 1.5345 (R1). If the break occurs here, next attractive level could be exposed at 1.5374 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.5403 (R3). Downwards scenario: However our both moving averages are pointing down and if the price manages to break our key support level at 1.5271 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.5242 (S2) and 1.5212 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5345, 1.5374, 1.5403
Support Levels: 1.5271, 1.5242, 1.5212
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USDJPY :
HIGH 97.71 LOW 95.79 BID 97.438 ASK 97.439 CHANGE 0.69% TIME 08 : 33:23
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 98.27 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 98.83 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 99.39 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible depreciation below the technically important support level at 97.08 (S1) would allow further market decline on the medium-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 96.53 (S2) and 95.99 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.27, 98.83, 99.39
Support Levels: 97.08, 96.53, 95.99
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex Traders Blog | Forex Trading Systems | Forex Account | FXCC [/url] )
IMF cuts global growth for fourth consecutive time, European recession likelihood 50%
International Monetary Fund (IMF) trimmed its global growth forecast and urged European policy makers to use “aggressive” monetary policy as a second year of contraction leaves the euro area’s recovery lagging behind the rest of the world. The global economy will continue to grow a further 3.3% this year, less than the 3.5% forecast in January, after 3.2% growth in 2012, the fund noted today, cutting its prediction for this year a fourth consecutive time. Moreover, the Washington-based IMF sees the 17-country euro area shrinking 0.3% , compared with a 0.2% retreat in January, with France joining Spain and Italy in the contraction. “The main challenge is still very much in Europe,” IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard said. “Europe should do everything it can to strengthen private demand. What this means is aggressive monetary policy and what this means is getting the financial system to be stronger -- it’s still not in great shape.” As central banks in U.S. and Japan enact unorthodox policies such as asset purchases to rekindle and reinvigorate demand, pressure is mounting on the European Central Bank to do more. The IMF report describes a “three-speed” recovery led by emerging markets including China, with the U.S. forging ahead and Europe trailing after fighting a debt crisis that has forced bailouts of five countries in the region.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | Germany. 10-y Bond Auctionctus
2013-04-17 08:30 GMT | UK. Bank of England Minutes
2013-04-17 14:00 GMT | Canada. BoC Interest Rate Decision
2013-04-17 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Beige Book
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-17 04:36 GMT | EUR/USD edges lower after impressive close above 1.3155 pivot
2013-04-17 04:09 GMT | Medium-term bearish view on the Indian Rupee - Nomura
2013-04-17 03:34 GMT | AUD/USD rejected from 1.04 resistance
2013-04-17 03:32 GMT | EUR/AUD winning streak continues, more gains to follow?
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31879 LOW 1.31699 BID 1.31740 ASK 1.31745 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 58:06
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 1.3199 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 1.3225 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 1.3251 (R3). Downwards scenario: Pair looks likely to test our supportive means today. Devaluation below the support at 1.3150 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.3124 (S2) en route to final target at 1.3098 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3199, 1.3225, 1.3251
Support Levels: 1.3150, 1.3124, 1.3098
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53722 LOW 1.53479 BID 1.53479 ASK 1.53488 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 58:07
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Technically medium-term bias remains positive. Next resistive structure holds above the yesterday high at 1.5379 (R1). Break here would suggest marks at 1.5396 (R2) and 1.5411 (R3) as next visible targets. Downwards scenario: Downside expansion might face next hurdle at 1.5347 (S1). Break here is required to initiate stronger bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 1.5327 (S2) and 1.5307 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5379, 1.5396, 1.5411
Support Levels: 1.5347, 1.5327, 1.5307
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USDJPY :
HIGH 98.432 LOW 97.514 BID 98.323 ASK 98.328 CHANGE 0.8% TIME 08 : 58:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 98.58 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 98.87 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 99.13 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 98.08 (S1) might activate bearish pressure. Next aim for the downtrend expansion locates at 97.81 (S2) and then final target for today could be met at 97.52 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 98.58, 98.87, 99.13
Support Levels: 98.08, 97.81, 97.52
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex ECN Broker | Free Forex Demo Accounts | FXCC [/url] )
Weidmann opens the door to an ECB rate cut and foresees a lost decade in Europe
Jens Weidmann, the Bundesbank’s president, has affirmed that the European Central Bank could cut its interest rates if economic data continues worsening, according to an interview published by WSJ. Market has been speculating about the possibilities of the ECB cutting rates and now with inflation below the 2.0% it seems more than likely in May or June. However, Weidmann said the ECB “might adjust in response to new information," but he doesn’t “think that the monetary policy stance is the key issue."
"A point that I think is important to make, perhaps less for my central bank colleagues than for finance ministers,” Weidmann pointed, “is that the medication monetary policy makers administer only cures the symptoms and that it comes with side-effects and risks." In Weidmann's words, the important thing is the development of the reforms at the national and European level. The Bundesbank president also stated that the European recovery will take as much as a decade. The opinion is contrary to other European leaders who said that the worst of the crisis is over. "Overcoming the crisis and the crisis effects will remain a challenge over the next decade,” Weidmann affirmed.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting
2013-04-18 08:30 GMT | UK. Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)
2013-04-18 12:30 GMT | USA. Initial Jobless Claims (Apr 13)
2013-04-18 14:00 GMT | USA. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-04-18 05:58 GMT | EUR/USD flat-lining around 1.3040/45
2013-04-18 03:58 GMT | BoC unlikely to hike rates until H2 2014 - Nomura
2013-04-18 03:17 GMT | Australia activity will soften into the June quarter – NAB
2013-04-18 01:59 GMT | China house prices continue to rise
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3061 LOW 1.30207 BID 1.30491 ASK 1.30496 CHANGE 0.12% TIME 09 : 05:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Price consolidates after the initial downtrend development yesterday. Price appreciation is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3061 (R1). Break here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.3081 (R2) and 1.3102 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, technically important supportive structure lies at 1.3001 (S1). If the price manages to overcome it, we would suggest next initial targets at 1.2979 (S2) and 1.2957 (S3) in perspective.
Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3081, 1.3102
Support Levels: 1.3001, 1.2979, 1.2957
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52557 LOW 1.52328 BID 1.52532 ASK 1.52538 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 09 : 05:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD maintained a negative near-term tone though recovery action is possible above the next visible resistance at 1.5270 (R1). Clearance here might initiate bullish pressure and validate our next targets at 1.5287 (R2) and 1.5304 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our focus is shifted to the next support level at 1.5216 (S1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our next interim targets at 1.5199 (S2) en route towards to final support at 1.5182 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.5270, 1.5287, 1.5304
Support Levels: 1.5216, 1.5199, 1.5182
USDJPY :
HIGH 98.367 LOW 97.634 BID 98.064 ASK 98.069 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 09 : 05:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Next visible fractal level locates at 98.44 (R1). Violation here is required to provide a signal of possible uptrend formation. In such case, resistances at 98.70 (R2) and 98.96 (R3) acts as next attractive points for the bullish oriented traders. Downwards scenario: Negative developments might be settled below the important support level at 97.81 (S1). Any price action below it would then be targeting support at 97.56 (S2) and final target could be exposed at 97.29 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 98.44, 98.70, 98.96
Support Levels: 97.81, 97.56, 97.29
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Apr 03 2013
