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Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 10 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 10 2013
Will a busy economic schedule next week be the catalyst for EUR/USD?
The EUR/USD finished the day down 116 pips at 1.3044. Economic data was quiet for the most part but weekly jobless claims out of the US came in better than expected at 323k vs. 3.35k forecast. The US Dollar was well bid across the board, with the majority of action taking place in the USD/JPY which crossed the 100 threshold for the first time in four years. This seemed to help provide additional USD buying against other pairs, and also helped limit advances in commodities which were primarily lower for the day. Economic releases out of the Eurozone in the coming session include German Trade Balance, Italian Industrial Production, and EU Consumer Price Index.
After the better than expected jobs number past Friday, and another week of improvement in continued claims, some analysts view it as a sign the US Dollar could be set up for further gains in coming weeks. Furthermore, if we see continued gains in USD/JPY it could also be a tailwind and help the US Dollar remain well bid in other pairs. [url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10052013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-10 04:36 GMT | Kiwi edging lower in Asia trade
2013-05-10 01:59 GMT | USD/JPY, bulls officially staring at 101.00 from the rear mirror
2013-05-10 01:03 GMT | AUD/USD feeling the selling pressure ahead of RBA statement
2013-05-10 00:28 GMT | USD/JPY completes ‘pennant’ pattern on daily chart, further gains ahead?
----------------------
EURUSD
HIGH 1.30467 LOW 1.30214 BID 1.30451 ASK 1.30455 CHANGE 0.03% TIME 08 : 20:08
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3056 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.3079 (R2) and 1.3105 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside penetration is limited to the initial support level at 1.3010 (S1). A breach of which would open a route towards to next target at 1.2987 (S2) and potentially could expose our final support for today at 1.2965 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3056, 1.3079, 1.3105
Support Levels: 1.3010, 1.2987, 1.2965
----------------------
GBPUSD
HIGH 1.54572 LOW 1.54377 BID 1.54487 ASK 1.54490 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 20:09
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: Market formed gradual descending move however price appreciation is possible above the next resistance level at 1.5460 (R1). Break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.5487 (R2) and 1.5516 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 1.5427 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 1.5402 (S2) and 1.5380 (S3) might be triggered.
Resistance Levels: 1.5460, 1.5487, 1.5516
Support Levels: 1.5427, 1.5402, 1.5380
----------------------
USDJPY
HIGH 101.197 LOW 100.54 BID 100.937 ASK 100.942 CHANGE 0.32% TIME 08 : 20:10
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: USD/JPY continue its consolidation phase on the hourly chart. Possibility of uptrend evolvement is seen above the next resistance at 101.11 (R1). Violation here might increase bullish pressure and validate next intraday targets at 101.47 (R2) and 101.83 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 100.56 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 100.18 (S2) and 99.75 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.11, 101.47, 101.83
Support Levels: 100.56, 100.18, 99.75
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 13 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 13 2013
Japan rests re-assured not labeled 'currency manipulator' by G7
Over the weekend, the G7 re-assured the market that Japan is not deliberately weakening the yen in order to create a competitive advantage against other industrialized nations. The group repeated its old same lines about its commitment to avoid artificial currency devaluation for domestic gain purposes, while re-iterating its commitment to avoid volatility in FX rates. According to Mike Paterson, editor at Forexlive: "The general consensus seems to be they accept Japan’s arguments that their dramatic easing on monetary policy is aimed at combating deflation rather than weaker currency advantage." Mr. Paterson thinks the last developments in the G7 meeting "should be the green light for further yen selling when markets re-open given that it takes the uncertainty out of the equation but the announcement was hardly a surprise" he said.
It will be interesting to see just how much weaker it gets in the early stages. Failure to drop too far will suggest that there rightly should be an air of caution after such rapid falls. But as the say goes, all that glitters is not gold, and US, Canada and Germany were all suspiciously more notorious on voicing out a closer monitoring over Japan's next policy actions. As Mr. Paterson rightly points out, "behind the scenes of G7, sure there is not such a united front as they wish to portray." U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew had something to say on yen weakness: “We’ll keep an eye on that”, suggesting that any signs of currency manipulation by Japan will be watch very closely, adding that Japan had “growth issues.” Japan's Finance Minister Mr. Aso confirmed to media reporters that no criticism was noted on Japan’s monetary easing. [url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/13052013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | EMU. Eurogroup meeting
2013-05-13 12:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales
2013-05-13 14:00 GMT | USA. Business Inventories (Mar)
2013-05-13 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Retail Sales
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-13 04:32 GMT | EUR/USD uncomfortable below 1.30, further definition needed
2013-05-13 04:21 GMT | USD extends gains; Gold takes a hit
2013-05-13 03:34 GMT | Gold selling off sharply below $1430
2013-05-13 03:24 GMT | USD/JPY, expect little pullback in the high 101s - RBS
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.29781 LOW 1.29595 BID 1.29756 ASK 1.29758 CHANGE -0.12% TIME 08 : 04:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT :Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY :Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Neutral hourly studies point towards further consolidation, with a break of next resistive structure at 1.3011 (R1) is required to spark stronger upside action. In such scenario we would suggest our next initial targets at 1.3036 (R2) and 1.3062 (R3). Downwards scenario: Medium-term bias is clearly negative. Possible progress below the initial support level at 1.2957 (S1) might expose our intraday targets at 1.2934 (S2) and then 1.2909 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3011, 1.3036, 1.3062
Support Levels: 1.2957, 1.2934, 1.2909
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53578 LOW 1.53357 BID 1.53519 ASK 1.53529 CHANGE -0.07% TIME 08 : 04:42
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT :Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY :Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is consolidating today however we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 1.5403 (R2) and 1.5429 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 1.5377 (R1). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.5334 (S1), any penetration below it might activate further downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.5310 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to final support at 1.5284 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5377, 1.5403, 1.5429
Support Levels: 1.5334, 1.5310, 1.5284
------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 102.151 LOW 101.74 BID 101.751 ASK 101.752 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 04:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT :Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY :Low
Upwards scenario: Further uptrend development is possible above the next resistance level at 102.18 (R1). Break here would open route towards to higher target at 102.65 (R2) and any further price advance would then be limited to 103.12 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, a break of the support at 101.44 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 101.01 (S2). Clearance of this target would open a path towards to final support for today at 100.57 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 102.18, 102.65, 103.12
Support Levels: 101.44, 101.01, 100.57
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN Broker | Forex Practice Account | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 14 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 14 2013
Schäuble suggests revising EU treaties to make way for banking union
German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble told the Financial Times today that the banking union could not be completed without a modification of EU treaties. The process of changing them however could last several months or even years. According to Schäuble the existing treaties “do not suffice” to allow for forming a strong central resolution authority. Therefore he warned against making promises which the EU cannot keep, as they would directly affect its credibility.
“The EU does not have coercive means to enforce decisions” Schäuble said. “What it has are responsibilities and powers defined by its treaties.” A change to the treaties would provide a better separation of the ECB's monetary and supervisory functions. The German finance minister is conscious that such changes might take a long time, so he proposed a two-step process consisting of a resolution mechanism based on a network of national authorities as well as a network of resolution funds. Even though Schäuble acknowledges that such a structure would not be trons enough in the long term, he believes that it would allow to buy time and create the base for reaching the final objective: a European banking union, which encompasses the entire interior market. [url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/14052013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-14 04:28 GMT | Look to get long EUR/JPY into support levels
2013-05-14 03:58 GMT | EUR/USD still range bound ahead of busy economic calendar week
2013-05-14 03:46 GMT | AUD/USD, outlook is bearish but be patient - RBS
2013-05-14 03:11 GMT | GBP/USD completes ‘bear flag’ pattern on daily chart
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30261 LOW 1.29693 BID 1.30029 ASK 1.30033 CHANGE 0.21% TIME 08 : 33:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Possibility of uptrend penetration is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3026 (R1). Clearance here might enable bullish pressure and let the price to achieve our intraday targets at 1.3044 (R2) and 1.3062 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the short-term perspective the pair might encounter supportive measures at 1.2992 (S1). Loss here might change intraday technical structure and opens the way for a test of 1.2971 (S2) and 1.2951 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3026, 1.3044, 1.3062
Support Levels: 1.2992, 1.2971, 1.2951
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5331 LOW 1.52939 BID 1.53144 ASK 1.53152 CHANGE 0.1% TIME 08 : 33:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.5334 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.5358 (R2) and 1.5383 (R3) Downwards scenario: On the other hand if the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.5296 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our target at 1.5272 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.5249 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 1.5334, 1.5358, 1.5383
Support Levels: 1.5296, 1.5272, 1.5249
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.849 LOW 101.365 BID 101.439 ASK 101.441 CHANGE -0.37% TIME 08 : 33:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive however further market rise is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 101.78 (R1), clearance here is required to enable next resistances at 102.22 (R2) and last one at 102.67 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 101.21 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 100.77 (S2) and 100.35 (S3) later on.
Resistance Levels: 101.78, 102.22, 102.67
Support Levels: 101.21, 100.77, 100.35
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN Forex Software | The Best Forex Broker | Forex Account | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 15 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 15 2013
EU gives the go-ahead to Spanish bank restructuring plan
The European Commission announced on Wednesday its approval of the plans to restructure Spain's four nationalized banks: Bankia, Nova Caixa Galicia, Catalunya Caixa and Banco de Valencia. Vice President of the European Commission responsible for Competition Policy Joaquín Almunia said in the European morning that the injection of 37 billion euros of the bank rescue would require a 60% reduction in the size of the nationalized financial institutions by 2017.
Joaquín Almunia informed that during the negotiations with Spanish authorities and the banks in question it was established that the recapitalization funds would be distributed as follows: 18 billion euros for Bankia, 9 billion for Catalunya Caixa, 5.5 billion for Nova Caixa Galicia and 4.5 billion for Banco de Valencia. The four nationalized financial institutions should abandon conceding loans for high risk activities and should transfer 45 billion euros of toxic assets to the newly created bad bank. Catalunya Caixa and Nova Caixa Galicia are expected to be sold before 2017.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-15-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2012-11-29 08:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Nov)
2012-11-29 10:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2012-11-29 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)
2012-11-29 15:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Upwards scenario: Next on tap, resistance level at 1.2962 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to next target at 1.2980 (R2) and final immediate resistance is seen at 1.2996 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further retracement formation on the medium-term might occur below the support level at 1.2939 (S1), break here is required to put focus on actual targets at 1.2921 (S2) and 1.2903 (S3).
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the resistance at 1.6021 (R1). Any violation of that level would be considered as signal of possible uptrend formation towards to our targets at 1.6031 (R2) and 1.6042 (R3).Downwards scenario: Though, our medium-term outlook is bearish. A break through support level at 1.6005 (S1) is possible en route towards to our intraday targets at 1.5994 (S2) and 1.5983 (S3).
Upwards scenario: The pair might face key resistive bastion at 82.22 (R1). A break above it might activate upside pressure and suggest the short-term targets at 82.30 (R2) and 82.39 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term focus has returned to the support at 82.00 (S1). If the market manages to overcome it, next hurdle lies at 81.91 (S2) and 81.82 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 82.22, 82.30, 82.39
Support Levels: 82.00, 81.91, 81.82
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 16 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 16 2013
BoE sees a modest and sustained recovery over the next three years
The quarterly Inflation Report released by the Bank of England on Wednesday suggests that UK inflation should rise above 3% in June and that it will possibly remain above the 2% target for the next two years. As for the GDP, it is “likely to pick up gradually over the next year or so, supported by past asset purchases, an easing in credit conditions aided by the Funding for Lending Scheme, and a continuing improvement in the global environment.”
The BoE MPC expects GDP growth of 0.3% in the first quarter of 2013. In the current quarter they see quarterly GDP expanding by 0.5%, while year-on-year GDP is projected to grow by 2.2% (compared with the previous forecast of 2%). Nevertheless, the MPC recognizes that the recovery is still “weak and uneven.” The report states that in the light of the growth and inflation forecasts more stimulus might be required. No rate hike should be carried out before 2016 however. Following the release of the report, BoE Governor Mervyn King presented it at a press conference. He pointed out that there are many obstacles on UK's road to recovery, the most important being the Eurozone crisis and rising unemployment. He stressed that UK policymakers should continue their efforts to boost the recovery as “this is no time to be complacent.” [url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-16-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-05-15 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index
2013-05-15 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index
2013-05-15 14:00 GMT | USA. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey
2013-05-15 19:05 GMT | USA. FOMC Member Williams speech
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-15 19:24 GMT | EUR/USD seen at 1.2600 in 3 months – UBS
2013-05-15 18:55 GMT | GBP/JPY is unable to break above 156.00
2013-05-15 18:41 GMT | USD/CHF retests daily lows
2013-05-15 18:19 GMT | AUD/USD's recovery capped at 0.9920, back to 0.9870
Upwards scenario: Next on tap, resistance level at 1.2962 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to next target at 1.2980 (R2) and final immediate resistance is seen at 1.2996 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further retracement formation on the medium-term might occur below the support level at 1.2939 (S1), break here is required to put focus on actual targets at 1.2921 (S2) and 1.2903 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2962, 1.2980, 1.2996
Support Levels: 1.2939, 1.2921, 1.2903
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the resistance at 1.6021 (R1). Any violation of that level would be considered as signal of possible uptrend formation towards to our targets at 1.6031 (R2) and 1.6042 (R3).Downwards scenario: Though, our medium-term outlook is bearish. A break through support level at 1.6005 (S1) is possible en route towards to our intraday targets at 1.5994 (S2) and 1.5983 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6021, 1.6031, 1.6042
Support Levels: 1.6005, 1.5994, 1.5983
Upwards scenario: The pair might face key resistive bastion at 82.22 (R1). A break above it might activate upside pressure and suggest the short-term targets at 82.30 (R2) and 82.39 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term focus has returned to the support at 82.00 (S1). If the market manages to overcome it, next hurdle lies at 81.91 (S2) and 81.82 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 82.22, 82.30, 82.39
Support Levels: 82.00, 81.91, 81.82
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN Broker Account | Currency Converter | Forex Blog | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 17 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 17 2013
Talking Down the EUR
The euro came under selling pressure today against the U.S. dollar after European Industry Commissioner Tajani tried to talk down the currency. As the head of an agency whose goal is to protect the export sector, Tajani complained that the euro is too strong and called on the central bank to manage the currency in a way that would help exports. Considering that the euro has been in a downtrend since the beginning of the month and has lost over 5% since the beginning of February, some investors may be surprised by the timing of Tajani's comments. However it is clear that underperformance of the Eurozone economy, which is currently in recession is a big motivation for industry officials, politicians and central bankers to make overtures to weaken the euro now versus February. In addition, with the currency in a downtrend, comments such as these will have a greater impact on the euro. As the ECB considers whether to introduce negative deposit rates or purchases of asset backed securities, a weaker currency will provide additional support to the region's economy.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/17052013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-05-17 09:00 GMT | EMU. Construction Output w.d.a (YoY) (Mar)
2013-05-17 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
2013-05-17 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May)
2013-05-17 15:00 GMT | USA. CB Leading Indicator (MoM) (Apr)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-17 04:58 GMT | Nomura's survey on USDJPY suggest higher quotes
2013-05-17 04:26 GMT | Technical picture continues to become more bearish for EUR/USD
2013-05-17 03:57 GMT | AUD/USD, how far can it go? 0.9750/10 next demand
2013-05-17 02:40 GMT | USD/CHF inching toward hourly resistance trend line at 0.9675
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28897 LOW 1.2855 BID 1.28676 ASK 1.28680 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 26:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: 20 SMA acts as next resistance level at 1.2886 (R1). Penetration above that mark might trigger upside pressure and expose our next resistive mean at 1.2911 (R2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.2937 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.2843 (S1) Market would create a signal of bearish sentiment and enable our interim target at 1.2819 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.2794 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2886, 1.2911, 1.2937
Support Levels: 1.2843, 1.2819, 1.2794
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52822 LOW 1.52366 BID 1.52521 ASK 1.52533 CHANGE -0.1% TIME 08 : 26:30
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: A bearish tone dominates during the Asian session however further buying interest might arise above the resistance at 1.5281 (R1). Clearance here would suggest next intraday target at 1.5315 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect an increase towards to 1.5351 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to establish further positive bias today, likely we will see retest of our key support level at 1.5228 (S1). Break here is required to enable initial lower targets at 1.5194 (S2) and 1.5163 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.5281, 1.5315, 1.5351
Support Levels: 1.5228, 1.5194, 1.5163
--------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 102.371 LOW 102.08 BID 102.291 ASK 102.295 CHANGE 0.04% TIME 08 : 26:31
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Neutral
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains in play on the hourly chart. Our next resistance level is placed at 102.47 (R1). Strengthening above it would point to resistive structure at 102.81 (R2) onto 103.14 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downtrend evolvement might occur below the immediate support level at 102.05 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable our next targets at 101.70 (S2) and 101.36 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 102.47, 102.81, 103.14
Support Levels: 102.05, 101.70, 101.36
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN Broker List | Forex Trading Account | Currency Converter | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 20 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 20 2013
Bearish developments on EUR/USD charts continue to take shape
It was a rough week for the EUR/USD, as continued speculation of the Fed tapering QE purchases and worries of economic growth in Europe continued to put pressure on the pair throughout the week. When all was said and done, the pair finished the week down 0.90% to close at 1.2838. Market participants will be focusing on a number reports this week including testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke, as well as speeches by some regional Fed officials. According to Greg Gibbs, FX Trading Strategist at RBS,“the market will be looking closely at the Fed commentary this week. Bernanke's testimony to Congress on Wednesday is the main focal point, but there are important speeches by doves Evans and Dudley before then. As key supporters of maintaining the current $85bn pace of asset purchases, any shift in their tone will be seen as evidence that the consensus and Bernanke's views have shifted.”
He went on to add, “the commentary by Fed Watcher Hilsenrath just over a week ago and by a Fed dove Williams on Thursday last week has got the market thinking about potential for QE tapering in the summer, which puts into play the 19 June, 31 July or 18 September meetings. The June meeting includes a Bernanke press conference and staff projects, as does the September meeting.”
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-20-2013/[/url]
Upwards scenario: Bullish market sentiment is slightly improved yesterday however further appreciation needs to clear barrier at 1.2855 (R1) to enable our interim target at 1.2882 (R2) and then any further gains would be limited to last resistance at 1.2908 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price manages to overcome our next support barrier at 1.2818 (S1), we expect to see further market decline towards to our next target at 1.2800 (S2) and then next stop could be found at 1.2780 (S3) mark.
Resistance Levels: 1.2855, 1.2882, 1.2908
Support Levels: 1.2818, 1.2800, 1.2780
Upwards scenario: Next immediate resistive barrier is seen at 1.5209 (R1). If instrument gains momentum on the upside and manage to overcome it we would focus on the intraday targets at 1.5241 (R2) and 1.5276 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.5163 (S1). Break here is required to open a route towards to next target at 1.5141 (S2) and then any further easing would be targeting final support at 1.5117 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5209, 1.5241, 1.5276
Support Levels: 1.5163, 1.5141, 1.5117
Upwards scenario: Possible upwards formation is limited now to resistive measure at 102.87 (R1). A break above it would suggest next intraday target at 103.29 (R2) and if the price holds its momentum we can expect price increase towards to final resistance at 103.75 (R3). Downwards scenario: Pair looks likely to test our supportive means today. Devaluation below the support at 102.62 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 102.39 (S2) en route to final target at 102.07 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 102.87, 103.29, 103.75
Support Levels: 102.62, 102.39, 102.07
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 21 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 21 2013
Fed-Speak to dominate EUR/USD trading in coming days
The EUR/USD was able to claw back a small portion of its losses suffered last week, finishing the day up 64 pips at 1.2884. Economic news was light on the session with European markets closed and no releases out of the US. Market participants will be expecting volatility to really pick up later in the week when we see Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony to Congress, the release of the most recent FOMC minutes, and a number of other regional Fed speakers on the wires. Given the recent market buzz of the prospects of Fed tapering QE, the next few days could help set a more established trend for the pair as we near month end.
According to Marc Chandler, Head Currency Strategist at BBH, “in the US, the FOMC minutes from the April 30/May 1 meeting will be released on Wednesday. Markets will be parsing them very thoroughly for any clues about QE tapering. Those minutes will be sandwiched between another heavy slate of Fed speakers including Bullard and Dudley on Tuesday, Bernanke testimony on Wednesday, and Bullard again on Thursday. Bernanke’s testimony will be the most important, of course. While we expect the key Fed officials to signal steady as she goes with regards to QE, we acknowledge that markets could see some turbulence.” Other analysts also mention to keep a focus on Europe, as we will see a number of important PMI releases from the region later in the week as well as speeches from important European officials including ECB President Draghi.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-21-2013/[/url]
Upwards scenario: On the upside market might get more incentives above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.2905 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2930 (R2) and 1.2955 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, possible downtrend development may encounter supportive measure at 1.2860 (S1). Penetration through this level would targeting then supportive means at 1.2836 (S2) and 1.2811 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.2905, 1.2930, 1.2955
Support Levels: 1.2860, 1.2836, 1.2811
Upwards scenario: While both moving averages are pointing down, medium-term technical outlook would be positive. Key resistance level lie at 1.5281 (R1), above here opens a route towards to our initial targets at 1.5308 (R2) and 1.5336 (R3). Downwards scenario: Local low at 1.5221 (S1) offers next immediate support barrier. Successful penetration below it would open path towards to next intraday targets at 1.5194 (S2) and 1.5165 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5281, 1.5308, 1.5336
Support Levels: 1.5221, 1.5194, 1.5165
Upwards scenario: On the upside resistive structure at 102.77 (R1) prevents further gains. Clearance here is required to open route towards to next target at 103.10 (R2) and then final target could be triggered at 103.43 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, pair keeps the consolidation pattern intact. We see potential to positively retest supportive barrier at 102.19 (S1). Depreciation below it would open route towards to initial targets at 101.86 (S2) and 101.52 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 102.77, 103.10, 103.43
Support Levels: 102.19, 101.86, 101.52
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] ECN FX Broker Platform | Forex Account | Currency Converter | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 22 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 22 2013
Bernanke testimony, FOMC minutes, & European data to heighten EUR/USD volatility
The EUR/USD finished the day moderately higher, closing up 25 pips at 1.2905 ahead of what is sure to be a volatile session with Fed Chairman Bernanke set to testify in front of congress at 14:00GMT. Furthermore, we will also see the release of the most recent FOMC minutes at 18:00GMT. According to Sean callow of Westpac,“The US calendar is dominated by Fed chairman Bernanke’s testimony on “The Economic Outlook” to the Joint Economic Committee of Congress (10am NY time). He will deliver a prepared text then take numerous questions from both friendly and hostile lawmakers. Volatility over the course of his appearance seems assured, as markets try to quickly decide whether Bernanke is trying to dampen talk of reducing QE some time soon, is affirming such a view or remaining non-committal. USD should gain in the latter two scenarios but we still expect the first outcome – Bernanke arguing that it is too soon to be confident that the economy is recovering sustainably.”
Other analysts are pointing towards European economic data as the additional catalysts for the EUR/USD which may help to break the recent range bound activity. Market participants should be aware that later in the week will see a number of European PMI figured which could also heighten volatility. [url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-22-2013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-22 03:26 GMT | USD/JPY steady near 102.50 after BoJ Monetary Policy release
2013-05-22 02:43 GMT | AUD/USD still around 0.98 despite worsening consumer confidence in | Australia
2013-05-22 02:41 GMT | GBP/JPY – Will buyers have enough force to take out 156.80 resistance?
2013-05-22 00:22 GMT | EUR/USD working its way higher thru 1.2920/40 supply
Upwards scenario: Instrument stabilized after the gains provided yesterday. Penetration above the resistive structure at 1.2926 (R1) might encourage protective orders execution and drive market price towards to the next resistive means at 1.2940 (R2) and 1.2955 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.2905 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.2889 (S2) and 1.2877 (S3) later on.
Resistance Levels: 1.2926, 1.2940, 1.2955
Support Levels: 1.2905, 1.2889, 1.2877
Upwards scenario: Next actual resistance level is seen at 1.5160 (R1). If the market manages to surge higher, our focus would returned to the next target at 1.5179 (R2) and further recovery action could be exhausted at 1.5197 (R3) intraday. Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 1.5128 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 1.5110 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 1.5092 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5160, 1.5179, 1.5197
Support Levels: 1.5128, 1.5110, 1.5092
Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 102.64 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 102.73 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 102.86 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Our next support level at 102.44 (S1) limits possible recovery attempts for now. Break here is required to establish negative market sentiment and enable lower target at 102.35 (S2) en route to final target at 102.25 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 102.64, 102.73, 102.86
Support Levels: 102.44, 102.35, 102.25
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex Training | Currency Converter | ECN Forex Trading Accounts | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 23 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 23 2013
FOMC minutes show members open to tapering QE
The minutes from the April 30 and May 1 FOMC meeting showed that "a number" of officials expressed willingness to taper the bond buying program as early as the June meeting "if the economic information received by that time showed evidence of sufficiently strong and sustained growth". However, according to the minutes, views differed about what evidence would be necessary and the likelihood of that outcome. One Fed official wanted to stop the bond purchases immediately, while another wanted to increase the size of the program. Despite the discrepancies, most members emphasized importance of being prepared to adjust purchases either up or down.
The minutes also revealed the Fed started a review of their exit strategy principles last released to the public in 2011. The broad principles appeared generally still valid, but the bank will probably need greater flexibility regarding the details of implementing policy normalization. The greenback surged against majority of its person Wednesday after Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at possibilities of the central bank slowing its bond purchases. Initially, dollar briefly dropped across the board after Bernanke said monetary stimulus is helping the U.S.economy recovery. [url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-23-2013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS
2013-05-23 04:13 GMT More volatility expected with EU PMI on tap
2013-05-23 03:32 GMT USD/JPY turns below 103.5 on bad China data
2013-05-23 03:09 GMT GBP/JPY edging lower towards support at 154.50
2013-05-23 03:01 GMT AUD/NZD glued to 1.20 despite Aussie disaster
Upwards scenario: EURUSD broke all supportive measure yesterday and currently stabilized near its lows. Appreciation above the resistive barrier at 1.2864 (R1) is compulsory to commence positive market structure and validate next intraday targets at 1.2887 (R2) and 1.2909 (R3). Downwards scenario: However our both moving averages are pointing down and if the price manages to break our key support level at 1.2824 (S1) we would expect further depreciation towards to our next targets, located at 1.2803 (S2) and 1.2781 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2864, 1.2887, 1.2909
Support Levels: 1.2824, 1.2803, 1.2781
Upwards scenario: Prolonged movement yesterday on the downside determined negative bias on the short-term perspective. Though possible penetration above the resistance level at 1.0573 (R1) might keep bulls in play, targeting next resistances at 1.5109 (R2) and 1.5145 (R3). Downwards scenario: The downside direction remains favored according to the technical indicators. Our key support measure lies at 1.5010 (S1). Decline below it would enable next targets located at 1.4978 (S2) and 1.4944 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5073, 1.5109, 1.5145
Support Levels: 1.5010, 1.4978, 1.4944
Upwards scenario: Price accelerates on the downside recently and likelihood of closing on the positive side today is low. However price appreciation the next resistance level at 102.25 (R1) would suggest next initial targets at 102.55 (R2) and 102.84 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next barrier on the way is seen at 101.76 (S1). Break here would open way towards to next intraday target at 101.48 (S2) and then final aim locates at 101.19 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 102.25, 102.55, 102.84
Support Levels: 101.76, 101.48, 101.19
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 10 2013
