If this is your first visit, be sure to check out the FAQ by clicking the link above.
You may have to register before you can post: click the register link above to proceed.
To start viewing messages, select the forum that you want to visit from the selection below.
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 24 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 24 2013
Will German GDP/IFO be the catalyst to take EUR/USD back above 1.3000?
The EUR/USD finished the session sharply higher, mainly benefiting from a better than expected European PMI data print. It will be another busy upcoming economic session in Europe, with German GDP due out at 6:00GMT, followed by German IFO at 8:00GMT. One has to ask, if the print comes in better than expected, will it be enough to take the pair back above the critical resistance level of 1.3000(the 20dma)? According to analysts at Rabobank, “there was a modestly firmer tone, maybe a ‘less downbeat tone’ is a better description because despite improvement they remain sub-50, to the suite of eurozone PMIs. In Germany, the Manufacturing PMI gained to 49.0, up from April’s 48.1 and the Services PMI ticked up to 49.8 from 49.6. France’s Manufacturing PMI increased to 45.5 from 44.4 and the Services PMI held steady at 44.3. For the eurozone as a whole, the Manufacturing PMI gained to 47.8 from April’s 46.7.”
They went on to add,“there’s no particularly strong message in these data but they are consistent with our thinking – and that of the ECB – that Europe’s economy will show some improvement as this year unfolds. Calmer financial market conditions should pay a positive dividend to the real economy over time.” The ‘risk on’ vs. ‘risk off’ sentiment of the equity market will also be something to keep in mind. It was interesting to see the EUR/USD go well bid on a day when the Nikkei dropped 7%. However, its hard to imagine this correlation continuing should US equities start a serious correction. Furthermore, some analysts believe that just because the recent EU PMI data came in better than expected, EU officials will not deviate from the dovish rhetoric which has been plentiful in recent weeks. [url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/24052013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-05-24 04:14 GMT | USD/JPY breaks below 102 like hot butter once again
2013-05-24 04:03 GMT | AUD/USD gets pounded down to 0.9650
2013-05-24 03:21 GMT | Sterling holds support at previous lows, continues to find aggressive bids near 1.5000
2013-05-24 02:13 GMT | GBP/JPY closes below 20dma for first time since April 5th
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.2937 LOW 1.29041 BID 1.29290 ASK 1.29294 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 17:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD consolidates prior macroeconomic news announcement. Our next resistive barrier is seen at 1.2945 (R1). Break here is required to drive market price towards to next visible targets at 1.2962 (R2) and 1.2978 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Although market players may prefer to increase exposure on the short positions and push the price below the support level at 1.2903 (S1). Possible price devaluation would suggest next initial targets at 1.2886 (S2) and then 1.2867 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2945, 1.2962, 1.2978
Support Levels: 1.2903, 1.2886, 1.2867
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51139 LOW 1.50639 BID 1.51015 ASK 1.51026 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 17:53
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD retraced after the initial downtrend formation. Next resistive barrier on the way is mark at 1.5119 (R1). Loss here is required to push the price towards to our targets at 1.5147 (R2) and 1.5177 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: Our next support level lies at 1.5062 (S1). Clearance here might resume downtrend expansion. Our intraday target locates at 1.5031 (S2) and 1.5001 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5119, 1.5147, 1.5177
Support Levels: 1.5062, 1.5031, 1.5001
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 102.585 LOW 101.084 BID 101.480 ASK 101.482 CHANGE -0.52% TIME 08 : 17:54
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow from Japan, though a break of our resistance at 102.00 (R1) would suggest next targets at 102.35 (R2) and 102.70 (R3). Downwards scenario: A short-term technical structure might turn into negative side below the support level at 101.07 (S1). Possible price depreciation would then be targeting support at 100.76 (S2) en route to final target at 100.43 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 102.00, 102.35, 102.70
Support Levels: 101.07, 100.76, 100.43
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Free Forex Demo Account | Forex Software | Forex Trading Blog | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 27 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 27 2013
EU gives the go-ahead to Spanish bank restructuring plan
The European Commission announced on Wednesday its approval of the plans to restructure Spain's four nationalized banks: Bankia, Nova Caixa Galicia, Catalunya Caixa and Banco de Valencia. Vice President of the European Commission responsible for Competition Policy Joaquín Almunia said in the European morning that the injection of 37 billion euros of the bank rescue would require a 60% reduction in the size of the nationalized financial institutions by 2017.
Joaquín Almunia informed that during the negotiations with Spanish authorities and the banks in question it was established that the recapitalization funds would be distributed as follows: 18 billion euros for Bankia, 9 billion for Catalunya Caixa, 5.5 billion for Nova Caixa Galicia and 4.5 billion for Banco de Valencia. The four nationalized financial institutions should abandon conceding loans for high risk activities and should transfer 45 billion euros of toxic assets to the newly created bad bank. Catalunya Caixa and Nova Caixa Galicia are expected to be sold before 2017.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-27-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2012-11-29 08:55 GMT | Germany. Unemployment Change (Nov)
2012-11-29 10:30 GMT | United Kingdom. BoE's Governor King Speech
2012-11-29 13:30 GMT | United States. Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q3)
2012-11-29 15:00 GMT | United States. Pending Home Sales (MoM) (Oct)
Upwards scenario: Next on tap, resistance level at 1.2962 (R1). A break higher could open the door for an attack to next target at 1.2980 (R2) and final immediate resistance is seen at 1.2996 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further retracement formation on the medium-term might occur below the support level at 1.2939 (S1), break here is required to put focus on actual targets at 1.2921 (S2) and 1.2903 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2962, 1.2980, 1.2996
Support Levels: 1.2939, 1.2921, 1.2903
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the resistance at 1.6021 (R1). Any violation of that level would be considered as signal of possible uptrend formation towards to our targets at 1.6031 (R2) and 1.6042 (R3).Downwards scenario: Though, our medium-term outlook is bearish. A break through support level at 1.6005 (S1) is possible en route towards to our intraday targets at 1.5994 (S2) and 1.5983 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.6021, 1.6031, 1.6042
Support Levels: 1.6005, 1.5994, 1.5983
Upwards scenario: The pair might face key resistive bastion at 82.22 (R1). A break above it might activate upside pressure and suggest the short-term targets at 82.30 (R2) and 82.39 (R3). Downwards scenario: On a slightly longer term focus has returned to the support at 82.00 (S1). If the market manages to overcome it, next hurdle lies at 81.91 (S2) and 81.82 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 82.22, 82.30, 82.39
Support Levels: 82.00, 81.91, 81.82
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Currency Converter | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Demo Account | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 28 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 28 2013
As last week’s volatility in Japanese markets demonstrates central banks do not have it all their own way. Unfortunately for Japan the risk remains that policy makers spur higher yields without accompanying growth, an outcome that would be highly undesirable, especially if it hits economic activity. Equity markets and risk assets in general came under pressure and safe havens found long lost bids, with core bond yields moving lower and JPY and CHF strengthening. The heightened volatility in markets was also partly triggered by concerns about the timing of the tapering off of Fed asset purchases, with Fed Chairman Bernanke setting the cat amongst the pigeons by with commenting about the possibility of reducing asset purchases over the next few meetings. Additionally weaker than forecast Chinese manufacturing confidence data came as another blow to markets. While the market reaction looked a tad overdone in it is notable that the dichotomy between growth and equity market performance has widened over recent weeks.
This week is likely to begin on a calmer note, with holidays in the US and UK today. Data releases in the US will remain encouraging , with May consumer confidence likely to move higher although US Q1 GDP is likely to be revised slightly lower to 2.4% due an inventories hit. In Europe, while the trajectory of recovery is starting from a much lower base there will be some improvement in business confidence in May while inflation will be well contained at 1.3% YoY in May, an outcome that will maintain room for more European Central Bank policy easing. In Japan a sixth straight negative CPI reading will highlight jus how difficult the job is for the Bank of Japan to meet its inflation target. The JPY was a major beneficiary of last week’s volatility helped by short covering as speculative positioning in the currency reached its lowest level since July 2007. A calmer tone to markets ought to ensure that JPY upside will be limited and USD buyers are likely to emerge just below the USD/JPY 100 level. In contrast the EUR has been surprisingly well behaved despite the fact that speculative EUR positioning has also dropped sharply over recent weeks. While the overall trend is lower EUR/USD will find some support on any dip to around 1.2795 this week.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-28-2013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS
2013-05-28 05:22 GMT USD/JPY offered at 102 figure
2013-05-28 04:23 GMT Bearish chart pattern developments still favor further downside in EUR/USD
2013-05-28 04:17 GMT AUD/USD erased all loses, back above 0.9630
2013-05-28 03:31 GMT GBP/USD chopping around 1.5100 in Asia trade
Upwards scenario: Recently pair gained momentum on the downside however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.2937 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next expected targets at 1.2951 (R2) and 1.2965 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside penetration is limited now to the initial support level at 1.2883 (S1). A breach of which would open a route towards to next target at 1.2870 (S2) and potentially could expose our final support at 1.2856 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.2937, 1.2951, 1.2965
Support Levels: 1.2883, 1.2870, 1.2856
Upwards scenario: New portion of macroeconomic data releases might increase volatility later on today. Our resistances at 1.5139 (R2) and 1.5162 (R3) could be exposed in case of possible upwards penetration. But first, price is required to overcome our key resistive barrier at 1.5117 (R1). Downwards scenario: Downside development remains for now limited to the next technical mark at 1.5085 (S1), clearance here would create a signal of possible market weakening towards to next expected targets at 1.5063 (S2) and 1.5040 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5117, 1.5139, 1.5162
Support Levels: 1.5085, 1.5063, 1.5040
Upwards scenario: USDJPY upwards penetration is approaching our next resistive barrier at 102.14 (R1). Surpassing of this level may initiate bullish pressure towards to next visible targets at 102.41 (R2) and 102.68 (R3). Downwards scenario: Risk of possible corrective action is seen below the support at 101.65 (S1). With penetration here opens a route towards to our immediate support level at 101.39 (S2) and any further price cut would then be limited to final target at 101.10 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 102.14, 102.41, 102.68
Support Levels: 101.65, 101.39, 101.10
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 29 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 29 2013
EUR Succumbs to Rise in U.S. Yields
Demand for U.S. dollars kept pressure on the euro and all major currencies throughout the North American session. Between the recovery in U.S. stocks and the surge in U.S. yields, the dollar is one of the most coveted currencies. Even though we haven’t seen a major pickup in foreign demand for U.S. dollars, particularly from Japan, the longer U.S. yields hold above 2% (10 year yields are at 2.15%), the more tempting it will be for foreign investors. The lack of U.S. data at the front of the week means the lack of threat to the dollar rally. As long as the good news continues to flow in, the dollar will remain in demand. How well the greenback performs against various currencies will of course depend on how economic data from those countries fare. We have seen some recent improvements in Eurozone data that reduces the chance of additional easing by the European Central Bank. German labor market numbers are scheduled for release tomorrow and an upside surprise will keep the EUR above 1.28.
The main driver of EUR/USD weakness has been the divergence between U.S. and Eurozone data – one was improving as the other was deteriorating. If we start to see improvements in the Eurozone economy, then the dynamics affecting the euro will start to change to benefit of the currency. Unfortunately based on the latest PMI numbers, there’s a risk of a downside surprise. According to the report, staffing levels fell for the first time since January with job shedding seen in both the manufacturing and service sectors. If unemployment rolls climb in the month of May, the EUR/USD could extend its losses but even then, the losses could be contained to 1.28, a level that has held for the past month. We probably need to see back to back weakness in Eurozone data (German unemployment and retail sales) for 1.28 to be broken.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-29-2013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS
2013-05-29 04:41 GMT Sterling hovering above critical support at 1.5000
2013-05-29 04:41 GMT USD unchanged; IMF lowers China GDP forecast
2013-05-29 04:16 GMT EUR/USD technical picture continues to sour, more declines to come?
2013-05-29 03:37 GMT AUD/JPY continues to find firm bids near 97.00
Upwards scenario: Our medium-term outlook is shifted to the negative side after the losses provided yesterday, however market appreciation is possible above the next resistance at 1.2880 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2899 (R2) and 1.2917 (R3). Downwards scenario: Fresh low at 1.2840 (S1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.2822 (S2). Final support for today locates at 1.2803 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2880, 1.2899, 1.2917
Support Levels: 1.2840, 1.2822, 1.2803
Upwards scenario: Our attention on the upside is put to the next resistive barrier at 1.5052 (R1). Break here is required to stimulate bullish forces to expose initial targets at 1.5078 (R2) and 1.5104 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 1.5014 (S1) is required to enable further market decline. Our next supportive measures locates at 1.4990 (S2) and 1.4967 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5052, 1.5078, 1.5104
Support Levels: 1.5014, 1.4990, 1.4967
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Further upwards penetration above the resistance at 102.53 (R1) would enable bullish forces and might drive market price towards to our initial targets at 102.70 (R2) and 102.89 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, prolonged movement below the initial support level at 102.01 (S1) might trigger protective orders execution and drive market price towards to supportive means at 101.82 (S2) and 101.61 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 102.53, 102.70, 102.89
Support Levels: 102.01, 101.82, 101.61
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex Trading Education | ECN Trading Forex Account | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 30 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 30 2013
OECD: Global economy is moving forward at multiple speeds
In its biannual Economic Outlook report, published on Wednesday, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development reduced the global growth outlook to 3.1% from the previous estimate of 3.4%. It expects the US and the Japanese economies to improve this year, suggesting at the same time that the Eurozone will continue to lag which might have “negative implications for the global economy."
The OECD cut the Eurozone growth forecast to -0.6% from -0.1% estimated in November 2012, warning that "activity is still falling, reflecting ongoing fiscal consolidation, weak confidence and tight credit conditions, especially in the periphery." The Eurozone economy should rebound to 1.1% in 2014. The OECD also urged the ECB to seriously consider implementing QE and introducing negative deposit rates in order to stimulate recovery in the area. China, which already saw its growth outlook reduced on Tuesday by the IMF, is expected to grow by 7.8% this year, down from a previous estimate of 8.5%. The organization was more upbeat about the US, which is projected to grow by 1.9% in 2013 and by 2.8% in 2014. Japan's growth forecast was hiked to 1.6% from 0.7%, with the prospect of a 1.4% gain next year, owing to the BoJ's implementation of fiscal and monetary stimulus programs.
[url]http://blog.fxcc.com/forex-technical-market-analysis-may-30-2013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR
2013-05-30 06:00 GMT UK. Nationwide Housing Prices n.s.a (YoY) (May)
2013-05-30 12:30 GMT USA. Gross Domestic Product Price Index
2013-05-30 14:30 GMT USA. Pending Home Sales (YoY) (Apr)
2013-05-30 23:30 GMT Japan. National Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
FOREX NEWS
2013-05-30 04:39 GMT USD eases to key level at 83.50 ahead of US GDP
2013-05-30 03:11 GMT GBP/USD – Bullish engulfing candle to spur further advances?
2013-05-30 02:29 GMT EUR/USD edging towards resistance at 1.3000
2013-05-30 01:50 GMT Aussie edging higher towards resistance at 0.9700
Upwards scenario: Recent upside penetration is limited now to the key resistive barrier at 1.2977 (R1). Appreciation above this mark might likely push the pair toward to next targets at 1.2991 (R2) and 1.3006 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible bull back on the hourly chart might face next hurdle at 1.2933 (S1). Break here is required to open road towards to our next retracement target at 1.2919 (S2) en route to final aim at 1.2902 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2977, 1.2991, 1.3006
Support Levels: 1.2933, 1.2919, 1.2902
Upwards scenario: A bullish oriented market participant might pressures to test our next resistance level at 1.5165 (R1). Loss here could open a route towards to our interim target at 1.5188 (R2) and the main aim for today locates at 1.5211 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be negative. Though, extension lower the 1.5099 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to our next supports at 1.5076 (S2) and 1.5053 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5165, 1.5188, 1.5211
Support Levels: 1.5099, 1.5076, 1.5053
Upwards scenario: USDJPY recently tested negative side and currently remains stable below the 20 SMA. Possible price appreciation is limited to the resistance level at 101.53 (R1). Only clear break here would suggest next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any prolonged movement below the support at 100.60 (S1) might prolong downside pressure and drive market price towards to supportive means at 100.34 (S2) and 100.08 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09
Support Levels: 100.60, 100.34, 100.08
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Currency Converter | Forex ECN Broker | Forex Demo Account |FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 31 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 31 2013
Will the Dollar Recover Too?
U.S. stocks and Treasury yields resumed their rise but the dollar failed to follow. Instead of trading higher, the greenback lost value against most of the major currencies. The EUR/USD rose above 1.30 and USD/JPY slipped below 101 after a round of weaker than expected economic data. Equity and fixed income traders shrugged off the data but FX traders refused to budge. Long dollar positions are still being cut which suggests that currency traders are still worried about the volatility in the financial markets and the eagerness of the Fed to taper asset purchases. U.S. equity and fixed income traders have completely ignored the 5% drop in the Nikkei overnight. Japanese stocks are 13% off its highs and if it continues to decline, it may have ripple effects over to U.S. markets and keep the dollar in corrective mode. However if the Nikkei stabilizes and starts to recover, then the dollar has a chance of joining the recovery.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/31052013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR
2013-05-31 08:30 GMT UK. Net Lending to Individuals (MoM)
2013-05-31 09:00 GMT EMU. Consumer Price Index - Core (YoY)
2013-05-31 12:30 GMT USA. Personal Spending (Apr)
2013-05-31 13:55 GMT USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (May)
FOREX NEWS
2013-05-31 04:01 GMT ‘Pennant’ pattern break out on EUR/USD targets a move north of 1.3200
2013-05-31 03:43 GMT Aussie advances capped below 0.9700
2013-05-31 02:30 GMT EUR/AUD off fresh 1.5-year highs below 1.35
2013-05-31 01:53 GMT AUD/JPY firm bounce off 97.00 support, sets eyes on 98.30
HIGH 1.30593 LOW 1.30312 BID 1.30405 ASK 1.30410 CHANGE -0.06% TIME 08 : 39:18
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Further bullish momentum might occur if the price manages to climb above the key resistance level at 1.3061 (R1). Next targets on the way could be exposed at 1.3081 (R2) and 1.3101 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, corrective action would be reasonable scenario in current price setup. Next on tap is seen support level at 1.3026 (S1), break here is required to enable our initial targets at 1.3006 (S2) and 1.2987 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 1.3061, 1.3081, 1.3101
Support Levels: 1.3026, 1.3006, 1.2987
HIGH 1.52392 LOW 1.52151 BID 1.52260 ASK 1.52269 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 39:19
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: An evidence of further uptrend formation could be provided if the pair manages to surpass key resistive barrier at 1.5239 (R1). Execution of protective orders above that level might enable initial targets at 1.5257 (R1) and 1.5274 (R3). Downwards scenario: Recent upside momentum likely exhausted and we expect some stabilization ahead. Next supportive bastion lies at 1.5211 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.5193 (S2) and 1.5176 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5239, 1.5257, 1.5274
Support Levels: 1.5211, 1.5193, 1.5176
HIGH 101.281 LOW 100.679 BID 100.871 ASK 100.874 CHANGE 0.15% TIME 08 : 39:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: Price has comfortably ranged on the hourly timeframe however we see potential to overcome our next resistance level at 101.30 (R1) later on today. Our eventual targets locates at 101.60 (R2) and 101.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: If the price failed to gain momentum on the upside we expect retest of our key support level at 100.47 (S1). Clearance here is required to keep the downside extension intact and enable our lower targets at 100.16 (S2) and 99.87 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.30, 101.60, 101.90
Support Levels: 100.47, 100.16, 99.87
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 04 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 04 2013
Fitch cuts Cyprus to B-, negative outlook
Fitch Ratings has downgraded Cyprus's long-term foreign currency issuer default rating by one notch to 'B-' from 'B' while keeping a negative outlook due to the country's elevated economic uncertainty. The rating agency had placed Cyprus on negative watch in March. With this decision, Fitch pushed Cyprus further into junk territory, now 6 notches. "Cyprus has no flexibility to deal with domestic or external shocks and there is a high risk of the (EU/IMF) program going off track, with financing buffers potentially insufficient to absorb material fiscal and economic slippage," Fitch said in a statement.
The EUR/USD finished the day sharply higher, at one point trading all the way up to 1.3107 before leaking lower later in the day to close up 76 pips at 1.3070. Some analysts were pointing towards weaker than expected ISM data from the US as the main catalyst for the bullish move in the pair. Economic data out of the US will slow down a bit the next few days, but volatility is certain to pick up as we approach the ECB Rate Decision on Thursday, as well as the Non-Farm Payrolls number due out of the US on Friday.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/04062013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-04 08:30 GMT | UK. PMI Construction (May)
2013-06-04 09:00 GMT | EMU. Producer Price Index (YoY) (Apr)
2013-06-04 12:30 GMT | USA. Trade Balance (Apr)
2013-06-04 23:30 GMT | Australia. AiG Performance of Services Index (May)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-04 04:30 GMT | RBA Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 2.75%
2013-06-04 03:20 GMT | Will economic data later in week free EUR/USD from range bound behavior?
2013-06-04 02:13 GMT | EUR/AUD finds some ground in the 1.34 round area
2013-06-04 02:00 GMT | AUD/JPY advances capped below 97.50
------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30804 LOW 1.30566 BID 1.30572 ASK 1.30575 CHANGE -0.14% TIME 08 : 22:51
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: While price is quoted above the 20 SMA, our technical outlook would be positive. Yesterday high offers next resistance level at 1.3107 (R1). Any price action above it would suggest next targets at 1.3127 (R2) and 1.3147(S3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3043 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3023 (S2) and 1.3003 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.3107, 1.3127, 1.3147
Support Levels: 1.3043, 1.3023, 1.3003
-----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53427 LOW 1.53101 BID 1.53115 ASK 1.53119 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 22:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Up
TREND CONDITION Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.5343 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.5362 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.5382 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 1.5307 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 1.5287 (S2) and 1.5267 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5343, 1.5362, 1.5382
Support Levels: 1.5307, 1.5287, 1.5267
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.88 LOW 99.333 BID 99.838 ASK 99.839 CHANGE 0.31% TIME 08 : 22:52
OUTLOOK SUMMARY Down
TREND CONDITION Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY Medium
Upwards scenario: Possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 100.02 (R1). Break here is required to establish retracement action, targeting 100.32 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 100.65 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 99.31 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 99.04 (S2) and 98.75 (S3) might be triggered.
Resistance Levels: 100.02, 100.32, 100.65
Support Levels: 99.31, 99.04, 98.75
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex Training | Best Automatic Forex Trading Platforms | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 05 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 05 2013
IMF's Lagarde urges Greece not to relax bailout efforts
MF head Christine Lagarde said in an interview for the Greek state TV on Tuesday that the country was making progress on its bailout program but that it nevertheless should increase efforts to combat tax evasion and implement reforms to attract foreign investors. 'Now is not the time to relax the effort,' Lagarde said, adding that "There are some really positive developments but obviously more needs to be done.” She listed tax evasion and reforms to spur foreign investment as the most important issues which need to be dealt with. This week EU, ECB and IMG inspectors return to Athens for another revision of the Greek bailout program, during which they are expected to focus on the Greek government's progress in reducing state employee numbers.
The EUR/USD traded in a narrow range today but still managed to finish the day in positive territory, closing up 11 pips at 1.3081. Economic data out of the both the EU and US was light, but will pick up as we approach the end of the week with the ECB Interest Rate Decision on Thursday, as well as US Non Farm Payrolls on Friday. However, before the real fireworks begin, some analysts are pointing to tomorrow’s ADP data out of the US as a possible catalyst for tomorrow’s price action. According to Sean Callow at Westpac, “we have the ADP report plus non manufacturing ISM jobs components tonight. There is a great deal of focus on jobs data in the US given recent speculation about Fed tapering its asset purchase programs. ADP disappointed in April but has not had much directional success in picking payrolls outcomes. The ISM report on Monday casts a long shadow over tonight's non manufacturing report. Arguably, markets will be set up for a softer outcome given the weaker US$ in recent sessions. Tonight's data could prove to be important for FX markets.”
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/05062013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-06-05 08:28 GMT | UK. Markit Services PMI (May)
2013-06-05 09:00 GMT | EMU. Gross Domestic Product
2013-06-05 14:00 GMT | USA. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (May)
2013-06-05 18:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Beige Book
FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-05 05:11 GMT | USD/JPY back below 100; Australia GDP disappoints
2013-06-05 04:39 GMT | AUD/JPY searching for bids near 96.00
2013-06-05 03:26 GMT | EUR/USD technical indicators beginning to look more constructive
2013-06-05 01:46 GMT | AUD/USD breaking lower towards 0.9600 after Aussie GDP data
---------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30964 LOW 1.30653 BID 1.30899 ASK 1.30903 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08 : 56:44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3107 (R1). Price evaluation above this level would suggest next targets at 1.3127 (R2) and 1.3147 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 1.3064 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 1.3043 (S2) and 1.3023 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3107, 1.3127, 1.3147
Support Levels: 1.3064, 1.3043, 1.3023
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53379 LOW 1.52912 BID 1.53331 ASK 1.53336 CHANGE 0.14% TIME 08 : 56:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Medium- term tendency remains bullish as both moving averages are pointing up. Further progress above the resistance level at 1.5343 (R1) would open way towards to next targets at 1.5362 (R2) and 1.5382 (R3). Downwards scenario: Measures of support might be activating when the pair approaches the 1.5307 (S1). If it continues to extend its weakening below it we expect next targets to be exposed at 1.5287 (S2) and 1.5267 (S3) later on.
Resistance Levels: 1.5343, 1.5362, 1.5382
Support Levels: 1.5307, 1.5287, 1.5267
--------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.462 LOW 99.385 BID 99.592 ASK 99.597 CHANGE -0.48% TIME 08 : 56:46
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: We see potential to test our resistive barrier at 99.75 (R1). Successful penetration above this mark might shift traders sentiment to the bullish side and validate our intraday targets at 100.02 (R2) and 100.32 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 99.31 (S1). Only loss here would enable our intraday targets at 99.04 (S2) and 98.75 (S3) on the downside.
Resistance Levels: 99.75, 100.02, 100.32
Support Levels: 99.31, 99.04, 98.75
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Forex ECN Brokers List | Auto Forex Trading Account | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 06 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 06 2013
EUR Prime for a Breakout on ECB
The euro is prime for a breakout. Unlike other major currency pairs, EUR/USD traded in a relatively tight range throughout the European and North American sessions. On a technical basis, the currency pair stayed between the 100 and 200-day SMAs for the past 48 hours, which reflects the hesitation of investors who are waiting for a catalyst to take the currency pair out of its range. Tomorrow could be the perfect opportunity for a breakout in the pair with the European Central Bank scheduled to deliver its monetary policy decision. The ECB is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged leaving Mario Draghi's press conference as the primary focus for FX traders.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/06062013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-06 05:16 GMT | GBP/USD dealing around 1.54 ahead of BoE
2013-06-06 04:59 GMT | USD lower but holding above 82.50 DXY; Aussie smacked
2013-06-06 04:24 GMT | Economic data set to heighten volatility in EUR/USD
2013-06-06 00:24 GMT | AUD/USD cracks the big 0.95 figure down
----------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31089 LOW 1.30751 BID 1.31005 ASK 1.31009 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 35:19
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized after the initial uptrend formation. Potential to move higher is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3116 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3135 (R2) and 1.3155 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our intraday technical outlook to the negative side if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.3074 (S1). Clearance here is required to enable intraday targets at 1.3053 (S2) and 1.3033 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3116, 1.3135, 1.3155
Support Levels: 1.3074, 1.3053, 1.3033
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.54157 LOW 1.5381 BID 1.54005 ASK 1.54011 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 35:20
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Ascending structure on GBPUSD suggest possible correction ahead though break above the resistance at 1.5418 (R1) is liable to stimulate bullish pressure and validate interim target at 1.5443 (R2) en route final aim at 1.5469 (R3). Downwards scenario: Retracement action is possible if the price manages to overcome our initial support level at 1.5359 (S1). In such case we would suggest intraday targets at 1.5353 (S2) and 1.5327 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5418, 1.5443, 1.5469
Support Levels: 1.5359, 1.5353, 1.5327
------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.466 LOW 98.862 BID 99.348 ASK 99.352 CHANGE 0.29% TIME 08 : 35:21
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Next hurdle on the upside is seen at important technical level – 99.55 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we expect further acceleration towards to our initial targets at 99.83 (R2) and 100.12 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next challenge is seen at 98.86 (S1). Breakthrough of this mark would open way for a downside expansion and could possibly trigger our initial targets at 98.58 (S2) and 98.30 (R3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 99.55, 99.83, 100.12
Support Levels: 98.86, 98.58, 98.30
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] FX Central Clearing Ltd [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 07 2013
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jun 07 2013
Will Non-Farm Payrolls Save or Kill the Dollar?
The big story today in the financial markets was the sell-off in the U.S. dollar. The greenback fell quickly and aggressively against all of the major currencies right around the European close and held onto its losses to end the day down 2% against the Japanese Yen and more than 1% against the euro, British pound and Swiss Franc. There were a few different factors behind the sell-off in the greenback. The dollar initially traded lower on the optimistic comments from ECB President Draghi but those losses were contained to the EUR/USD. USD/JPY did not see any losses until 90 minutes before the European close at 12pm NY Time and only when it started to break down did the dollar collapse against all of the major currencies.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/07062013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-06-07 04:46 GMT | USD/JPY attempts to fight back above 96.00 in Asia trade
2013-06-07 03:36 GMT | EUR/USD technical picture looks set for further advances ahead of NFP
2013-06-07 02:43 GMT | Aussie breaks 0.9550 as selling resumes in Asia
2013-06-07 01:40 GMT | USD/JPY breaks momentarily below 97 figure
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32688 LOW 1.32355 BID 1.32534 ASK 1.32540 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 24:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Apparently market sentiment is clearly positive for the EURUSD as both moving averages are pointing up. Clearance of our resistance level at 1.3305 (R1) would open the way for an upside penetration towards to next targets at 1.3337 (R2) and 1.3370 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible price depreciation is limited to the key support barrier at 1.3223 (S1). Break here is required to enable corrective action towards to lower targets at 1.3190 (S2) and 1.3157 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3305, 1.3337, 1.3370
Support Levels: 1.3223, 1.3190, 1.3157
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.56178 LOW 1.55808 BID 1.55949 ASK 1.55963 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 24:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.5684 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.5732 (R2) and 1.5781 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.5564 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.5517 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.5467 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5684, 1.5732, 1.5781
Support Levels: 1.5564, 1.5517, 1.5467
-------------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 97.517 LOW 95.549 BID 96.696 ASK 96.701 CHANGE -0.27% TIME 08 : 24:37
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: After dipping lower today we see potential of market strengthening in near-term perspective. Next on tap is seen resistance level at 97.57 (R1). Break here would suggest next intraday targets at 98.07 (R2) and 98.58 (R3). Downwards scenario: Price regress below the support level at 95.53 (S1) would increase likelihood of failing towards to our key supportive barrier at 95.07 (S2) and any further market decline would then be targeting final support for today at 94.58 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 97.57, 98.07, 98.58
Support Levels: 95.53, 95.07, 94.58
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] Free Forex Demo Accounts | Top ECN Forex Broker | Forex Blog | FXCC [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC May 24 2013
