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ECB members had heated clash over last rate decision
ECB Governing Council members had a confrontational approach over interest rates at their latest board meeting on Thursday, according to German weekly Der Spiegel, citing no sources, the MNI newswire reports. Der Spiegel claims to have obtained insights over the dovish views from ECB chief economist Peter Praet, who proposed to cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 bp in the last meeting, an action that ECB President Mario Draghi would have supported.
However, as MNI reports, "seven board members, mainly from northern European member states, were arguing sharply against a rate cut last week, the magazine reported." Der Spiegel reports German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann, Dutch central bank governor Klaas Knot as well as ECB Executive Board member Joerg Asmussen, as the most notoriously opposed to it. As is well known, the final decision taken by the board was to unanimously keep the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.5% while providing forward guidance on low rates. Draghi's said that "broad-based weakness in the real economy and subdued monetary dynamics" will keep rates at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/08072013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | All. Eurogroup Meeting
2013-07-08 13:30 GMT | EMU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-07-08 14:30 GMT | Canada. Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey (Q2)
2013-07-08 19:00 GMT | USA. Consumer Credit Change
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-08 04:59 GMT | Calls to buy USD all over; time to be sellers?
2013-07-08 04:26 GMT | GBP/USD strongly capped below 1.4900
2013-07-08 03:40 GMT | Buy AUD/NZD targeting 1.2130/70 - Societe Generale
2013-07-08 03:38 GMT | AUD/CAD depressed below 0.96 round
------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28319 LOW 1.28106 BID 1.28169 ASK 1.28173 CHANGE -0.11% TIME 08 : 30:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Market players may prefer to stay neutral today during limited tier one macroeconomic data flow, though a break of our resistance at 1.2852 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.2879 (R2) and 1.2905 (R3). Downwards scenario: Friday low offers a key support barrier at 1.2805 (S1). Only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2781 (S2) and 1.2757 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.2852, 1.2879, 1.2905
Support Levels: 1.2805, 1.2781, 1.2757
----------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.48824 LOW 1.48582 BID 1.48765 ASK 1.48774 CHANGE -0.02% TIME 08 : 30:01
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 1.4923 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead would enable corrective phase, targeting resistive measures at 1.4962 (R2) and 1.4999 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the other hand, if the pair accelerates on the downside and manage to break our next support level at 1.4853 (S1), it is likely to trigger our next support level at 1.4818 (S2) and 1.4782 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.4923, 1.4962, 1.4999
Support Levels: 1.4853, 1.4818, 1.4782
-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.531 LOW 101.06 BID 101.095 ASK 101.100 CHANGE -0.08% TIME 08:30:02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Uptrend evolvement remains in power. Further appreciation above the resistive barrier at 101.53 (R1) is liable to next intraday targets at 101.81 (R2) and 102.09 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible retracement action might get more stimulus below the support level at 100.87 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 100.58 (S2) and any weakening below it would then face final support at 100.28 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.53, 101.81, 102.09
Support Levels: 100.87, 100.58, 100.28
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] [url]http://www.fxcc.com[/url] [/url] )
Troika officials struck a deal with Greece this Monday, allowing the debt-laden country to receive its next tranche of funds, totalling The money, totaling 6.8bn euros ($8.7bn). The troika of the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) will be responsible to make the funds available end of the month. Eurozone finance ministers indicated earlier today that 2.5bn euros would come from the eurozone rescue fund and 1.5bn euros, while the European Central Bank will contribute with another 1.5bn euros. It is thought that an additional 500m euros from both the EZ rescue fund and the ECB will be transferred in October. The IMF will add the remaining 1.8bn euros.
The loans are subject to Greece showing a committal approach towards the country's fiscal path, with the Troika demanding further cuts and a faster implementation of its reform programme, one that has brought the country to its knees. Despite so, the Troika continues to underline the slow progress seen so far, as the country continues to struggle through an era of depression.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/09072013/[/url]
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-09 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD stalls the recovery below 1.4950
2013-07-09 04:50 GMT | EUR/USD aiming at 2nd daily gain
2013-07-09 03:09 GMT | NZD/USD back around 0.78 post-China CPI
2013-07-09 03:02 GMT | AUD/JPY setting stage for a 92.50 breakout?
-----------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.28711 LOW 1.2846 BID 1.28677 ASK 1.28683 CHANGE -0.01% TIME 08 : 33:00
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Instrument gained momentum on the upside recently, turning short-term bias to the positive side. Next resistive structure on the way lies at 1.2892 (R1), break here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.2909 (R2) and 1.2926 (R3). Downwards scenario: Failure to establish positive bias today would shift our focus to the next support level at 1.2844 (S1). Clearance here would open way towards to our initial targets at 1.2826 (S2) and 1.2806 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.2892, 1.2909, 1.2926
Support Levels: 1.2844, 1.2826, 1.2806
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.4953 LOW 1.49199 BID 1.49434 ASK 1.49442 CHANGE -0.05% TIME 08 : 33:01
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Yesterday high offers a key resistive measure at 1.4968 (R1). If the price manages to overcome it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.4999 (R2) and 1.5029 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside extension is limited now to the next support level at 1.4918 (S1). Below here we see potential for the price acceleration towards to next targets at 1.4884 (S2) and 1.4851 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.4968, 1.4999, 1.5029
Support Levels: 1.4918, 1.4884, 1.4851
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.243 LOW 100.768 BID 101.147 ASK 101.151 CHANGE 0.19% TIME 08 : 33:02
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Measures of resistance might be activating if the pair approaches 101.41 (R1) price level. Break here would suggest next interim target at 101.70 (R2) and If the price keeps its momentum we expect an exposure of 101.97 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, break below the support at 100.76 (S1) is required to enable further market decline. Our next supportive measures locates at 100.49 (S2) and 100.21 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 101.41, 101.70, 101.97
Support Levels: 100.76, 100.49, 100.21
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Ratings Agency Standard & Poor's decided to downgrade Italy on Tuesday, cutting the rating to BBB from BBB+. According to S&P, this action reflects their view of the effects of further weakening growth on Italy's economic structure and resilience, and its impaired monetary transmission mechanism. S&P also left their outlook at negative, meaning there is at least one-in-three chance that the rating could be lowered again in 2013 or 2014.
The highlights today will be the FOMC Minutes and Bernanke’s Speech and until then I don’t see an awful lot to move things around. The 4 hour charts are showing some minor bullish divergence and we could see the odd bounce but the dailies continue to point lower and I suspect that the low 1.2700 area will soon be tested. In the meantime leave room for bounces as the 4 hour charts unwind. We will be adding to our shorts if we see a bounce into the 1.2850/1.2900 in the coming session. German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech Economic data highlights will include: German CPI, US FOMC Minutes, Wholesale Inventories, Bernanke Speech
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/10072013/[/url]
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.27868 LOW 1.27648 BID 1.27823 ASK 1.27828 CHANGE 0.01% TIME 08 : 13:47
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly chart however appreciation above the next resistance at 1.2805 (R1) might be a good catalyst for a recovery action towards to next targets at 1.2833 (R2) and 1.2862 (R3). Downwards scenario: Any downside fluctuations remains for now limited to the next support level at 1.2754 (S1), only clear break here would be a signal of possible market easing towards to next targets at 1.2727 (S2) and 1.2699 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.2805, 1.2833, 1.2862
Support Levels: 1.2754, 1.2727, 1.2699
---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.48973 LOW 1.48451 BID 1.48948 ASK 1.48958 CHANGE 0.2% TIME 08 : 13:48
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Current price setup might suggest volatility increase in near term perspective. If the price get acceleration on the upside and manages to surpass our resistive measure at 1.4926 (R1), we would suggest next targets at 1.4972 (R2) and 1.5018 (R3). Downwards scenario: Yesterday session low provides an important supportive mark at 1.4813 (S1). Any penetration below this level would suggest next targets at 1.4767 (S2) and 1.4722 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 1.4926, 1.4972, 1.5018
Support Levels: 1.4813, 1.4767, 1.4722
---------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 101.216 LOW 100.374 BID 100.405 ASK 100.410 CHANGE -0.74% TIME 08 : 13:49
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Upside formation is limited now to the next resistive barrier at 100.76 (R1). Clearance here is required to provide a space for a move towards to next target at 101.02 (R2) and then final aim could be found at 101.29 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downtrend formation might get acceleration below the support level at 100.15 (S1). Loss here would suggest next intraday target at 99.87 (S2) and any weakening below it would then be limited to final support at 99.63 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.76, 101.02, 101.29
Support Levels: 100.15, 99.87, 99.63
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
ECB Monthly Report: Interest rates could be reduced further
The ECB signalized in its July Monthly Report that interest rates could be reduced further, should the price stability outlook warrant it. The recently introduced forward guidance was also included: “The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels for an extended period of time.” There was also some clarification of its time horizon: “The extended period of time over which the Governing Council currently expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at present or lower levels is a flexible horizon which does not pre-specify an end-date but is conditional on the Governing Council’s assessment of the economic fundamentals that determine underlying inflation."
Furthermore, the Council pointed to recent improvements in Eurozone sentiment indicators which suggest a gradual recovery of the economy later this year and in 2014. To support it, the ECB is prepared to maintain the accomodative monetary policy for as long as necessary. The accomodative policy should prop up domestic demand while the recovery in global demand should boost export growth in the area. Additionally, the Governing Council suggested that “the overall improvements in financial markets seen since last summer should work their way through to the real economy, as should the progress made in fiscal consolidation.”
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/12072013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-12 09:00 GMT | EMU. Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY)
2013-07-12 12:30 GMT | USA. Producer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-12 13:55 GMT | USA. Reuters/Michigan Consumer Sentiment
2013-07-12 17:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Bullard speech
-----------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31002 LOW 1.30728 BID 1.30752 ASK 1.30756 CHANGE -0.16% TIME 08 : 26:43
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Fractals level at 1.3124 (R1) offers a key resistive measure on the downside. Break here is required to enable bearish pressure and validate next target at 1.3167 (R2). Final support for today locates at 1.3208 (R3). Downwards scenario: As long as price stays above the moving averages our medium-term outlook would be positive. Though extension lower the 1.3028 (S1) is being able to drive market price towards to initial supports at 1.2988 (S2) and 1.2945 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3124, 1.3167, 1.3208
Support Levels: 1.3028, 1.2988, 1.2945
------------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.5189 LOW 1.51666 BID 1.51702 ASK 1.51710 CHANGE -0.09% TIME 08 : 26:44
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: We are not expecting significant volatility increase today however appreciation above the resistive structure at 1.5222 (R1) might trigger bullish pressure and drive market price towards to next targets at 1.5250 (R2) and 1.5278 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next supportive mark locates at 1.5145 (S1). Depreciation below it might shift short-term tendency to the bearish side and validate our next targets at 1.5117 (S2) and 1.5088 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5222, 1.5250, 1.5278
Support Levels: 1.5145, 1.5117, 1.5088
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.321 LOW 98.675 BID 99.048 ASK 99.048 CHANGE 0.11% TIME 08 : 26:45
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY trapped to the consolidation phase after the initial downtrend formation. Break of resistive level at 99.36 (R1) is required to enable recovery action. Our intraday targets are placed at 99.68 (R2) and 99.98 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though medium-term perspective remains negative for US Dollar. Next on tap is seen support level at 98.67 (S1), clearance here is required to enable lower targets at 98.36 (S2) and 98.06 (S3)
Resistance Levels: 99.36, 99.68, 99.98
Support Levels: 98.67, 98.36, 98.06
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Fitch Ratings has downgraded France to AA+ from AAA on Friday, keeping a stable outlook on the country's debt. Fitch, which joins S&P and Moody's in removing the country's AAA rating, cited the high level of the French government indebtedness as one of the main reasons of the downgrade. Fitch expects France's general government debt to peak at 96% of GDP in 2014 and decline only gradually over the long term, remaining at 92% in 2017. "The only 'AAA' country with a higher debt ratio is the U.S. (AAA/negative), which has exceptional financing flexibility and debt tolerance afforded by the preeminent global reserve currency status of the U.S. dollar," Fitch said in a statement.
Standard & Poor's has affirmed on Friday Germany's top triple-A sovereign credit rating, with a stable outlook. The rating agency justified its decision saying that “Germany has a highly diversified and competitive economy with a demonstrated ability to absorb large economic and financial shocks.” As far as the outlook on the long-term rating is concerned, S&P's decision to keep it 'stable' reflects their view that: “Germany's public finances and strong external balance sheet will continue to withstand potential financial and economic shocks.”
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/15072013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-15 07:15 GMT | Switzerland. Producer and Import Prices (YoY)
2013-07-15 12:00 GMT | USA. Fed's Tarullo speech
2013-07-15 12:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM)
2013-07-15 22:45 GMT | New Zeland. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-15 04:56 GMT | GBP/USD treading water above 1.5100
2013-07-15 03:49 GMT | AUD/USD exposed to 0.80/0.85 fall - RBS
2013-07-15 03:35 GMT | EUR/USD, 1.2930-80 key to technical outlook - BBH
2013-07-15 02:39 GMT | USD/JPY flat above 99.00 with Tokyo closed
---------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.3079 LOW 1.30513 BID 1.30773 ASK 1.30773 CHANGE 0.08% TIME 08:00:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: With limited economic data flow today we expect further neutral tone development. However, price strengthening is possible above the next resistance level at 1.3092 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.3124 (R2) en route to our final aim for today at 1.3157 (R3). Downwards scenario: Current price pattern suggests bearish potential if the pair manages to overcome next support level at 1.3044 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3008 (S2) and 1.2974 (S3) later on today.
Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3124, 1.3157
Support Levels: 1.3044, 1.3008, 1.2974
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51287 LOW 1.5098 BID 1.51257 ASK 1.51268 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08:00:33
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistive barrier at 1.5141 (R1). Break here is required to prolong upside pressure and trigger our intraday targets at 1.5173(R2) and 1.5203 (R3) later on today. Downwards scenario: As long as price stays below the next resistance level our technical outlook would be negative. Next on tap is support level at 1.5088 (S1). Penetration below this mark would suggest next targets at 1.5059 (S2) and 1.5028 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5141, 1.5173, 1.5203
Support Levels: 1.5088, 1.5059, 1.5028
----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 99.383 LOW 99.074 BID 99.271 ASK 99.272 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08:00:34
Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 99.46 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 99.68 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 99.90 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, loss of our support level at 99.03 (S1) would open road for a market decline towards to our next target at 98.83 (S2). Any further price weakening would then be limited to final support for today at 98.61 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 99.46, 99.68, 99.90
Support Levels: 99.03, 98.83, 98.61
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Dovish ECB, soft US retail sales balance each other out. Waiting on Bernanke – again!
Dovish talk from the ECB undermined the Euro before the softer than expected US Retail Sales turned things around, sending the US dollar slightly lower. Markets are likely to be on hold ahead of Bernanke’s testimony to Congress although equities and commodities both looks solid in the short term. A mix of data out of the EU and the US could make it a bit choppy later in the day. Before then, the RBA Minutes will be Asia’s focus.
The Euro has had a choppy but mostly uninteresting session, hanging close to 1.3000 as the northern hemisphere summer doldrums look to be well upon us. Early dovish comments from the ECB’s Hansson, indicating that there is room to cut rates further and that negative interest rates should not be ruled out helped push the Euro lower early in the session, before a bit of a turnaround following the softer than expected US retail Sales, that saw the dollar come under some pressure of its own. Fitch downgraded the EFSF – European Financial Stability Facility- to AA+ from AAA, which, following on from the recent France downgrade, had precisely no effect on the Euro at all.
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/16072013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
N/A | UK. BOE Inflation Letter
2013-07-16 08:30 GMT | UK. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-16 09:00 GMT | EMU. Consumer Price Index (YoY
2013-07-16 12:30 GMT | USA. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-16 04:46 GMT | GBP/USD stable above 1.51 ahead of UK&US CPI's
2013-07-16 04:25 GMT | EUR/USD pressing against 1.3080
2013-07-16 03:10 GMT | NZD/USD seen at 0.78 year end - BNZ
2013-07-16 02:07 GMT | AUD/USD targets 0.9188, dip buyers on the rise
-------------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.30758 LOW 1.30527 BID 1.30716 ASK 1.30722 CHANGE 0.07% TIME 08 : 21:26
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3092 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3132 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3171 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, clearance of our support at 1.3049 (S1) is required to determine negative intraday bias and enable lower target at 1.3010 (S2) and then any further market depreciation would suggest final support at 1.2969 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3092, 1.3132, 1.3171
Support Levels: 1.3049, 1.3010, 1.2969
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.51167 LOW 1.50909 BID 1.51066 ASK 1.51078 CHANGE 0.06% TIME 08 : 21:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: Neutral channel formation remains favored pattern on the hourly chart frame. Possible clearance of our next resistive barrier at 1.5132 (R1) would suggest next intraday targets at 1.5173 (R2) and 1.5216 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Possible downside expansion is protected by support level at 1.5086 (S1), break here would put bullish oriented traders on hold. Marks at 1.5046 (S2) and 1.5004 (S3) acts as our initial targets today.
Resistance Levels: 1.5132, 1.5173, 1.5216
Support Levels: 1.5086, 1.5046, 1.5004
-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 100.068 LOW 99.647 BID 99.805 ASK 99.807 CHANGE -0.03% TIME 08 : 21:27
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High
Upwards scenario: USDJPY resumed its consolidation phase yesterday and we see potential for further appreciation towards to our targets at 100.33 (R2) and 100.60 (R3) if the price manages to overcome key resistance measure at 100.06 (R1). Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 99.62 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 99.35 (S2) and 99.06 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.06, 100.33, 100.60
Support Levels: 99.62, 99.35, 99.06
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Fed's Bernanke: Asset purchases not 'on a preset course'
According to the prepared text of Chairman Ben Bernanke's speech, to be delivered later today during his Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress, the pace of the Federal Reserve's bond purchases is not 'on a preset course', as it depends on the current economic and financial situation. The Fed head assured that signs of recovery are visible in the US labor market, but that “the jobs situation is far from satisfactory, as the unemployment rate remains well above its longer-run normal level.” He also pointed out that inflation is still below the Fed's 2% target. That is why “a highly accommodative monetary policy will remain appropriate for the foreseeable future.”
As far as QE is concerned, Bernanke stressed that the decision on when the tapering should begin depends on the Fed's assessment of the US economic outlook. Should economic data improve earlier than forecasted and inflation rise towards the objective, a reduction could be carried out sooner. Otherwise, “the current pace of purchases could be maintained for longer.” According to Rob Carnell from ING: ”This speech neither contradicts nor supports the notion that the taper begins in September. The taper might begin then. But as we have written elsewhere, there are quite good reasons why it may occur somewhat later. Not that it really matters all that much anyway – given that the Fed funds decision is one that will be taken independently from QE.”
[url]https://support.fxcc.com/email/technical/18072013/[/url]
FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-18 08:30 GMT | UK Retail Sales (YoY)
2013-07-18 12:30 GMT | US Initial Jobless Claims
2013-07-18 14:00 GMT | US Fed's Bernanke Speech
2013-07-18 23:50 GMT | Japan. Foreign bond investment
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-18 04:52 GMT | GBP/USD breaks below 1.52 ahead of UK retail sales
2013-07-18 04:31 GMT | USD/JPY above 100 again ahead of Sunday's elections
2013-07-18 04:20 GMT | EUR/USD breaks 1.32, needs to clear 1.3180
2013-07-18 04:04 GMT | AUD/USD trips stop losses below 0.9170
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31271 LOW 1.3091 BID 1.30962 ASK 1.30968 CHANGE -0.22% TIME 08 : 24:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: EURUSD stabilized on the hourly timeframe. Potential to move higher is seen above the next resistance level at 1.3147 (R1). Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3210 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible downside extension might face next supportive barrier at 1.3081 (S1). Clearance here is required to open the way towards to interim target at 1.3050 (S2) and any further price regress would then be targeting 1.3019 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3147, 1.3179, 1.3210
Support Levels: 1.3081, 1.3050, 1.3019
--------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52232 LOW 1.51728 BID 1.51789 ASK 1.51799 CHANGE -0.21% TIME 08 : 24:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: GBPUSD is approaching our next resistance level at 1.5223 (R1), keeping the ascending structure intact. The break here is required for the price appreciation towards to next target at 1.5252 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting to 1.5281 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside next supportive bastion lies at 1.5152 (S1). Prolonged movement below it might then expose our intraday targets at 1.5124 (S2) and 1.5095 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5223, 1.5252, 1.5281
Support Levels: 1.5152, 1.5124, 1.5095
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USDJPY :
HIGH 100.18 LOW 99.463 BID 100.085 ASK 100.088 CHANGE 0.53% TIME 08 : 24:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Our next resistance level is placed at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to resume uptrend structure towards to next target at 100.41 (R2) and any further price appreciation would then be limited to 100.61 (R3) mark. Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 99.84 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 99.64 (S2) and 99.44 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61
Support Levels: 99.84, 99.64, 99.44
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Bernanke: Too early to say when tapering will start
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testified before the Congress for a second day on Thursday. While the introductory statement remained unchanged, investors didn't get new insights from the Q&A session before the Senate Banking Committee. When asked about the time the Fed will scale back its monthly bond-buying programme, he said "it's way too early to make any judgment" as the Fed wants to see sustainable improvement in labor markets. Bernanke also said he has broad support for his policy outlook through the Fed leadership. "We've not changed policy. We are not talking about tightening monetary policy", Bernanke said. He added that none of what the Fed has communicated about winding down its bond purchases implies tighter policy in the foreseeable future. Among other remarks, Bernanke said he doesn't see risks to financial stability from student debt, though he said it could have negative economic consequences in the long-term. "It is not particularly likely to cause any sharp instability of the sort we saw in the last few years", Bernanke said Thursday.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
24h | All. G20 Meeting
2013-07-19 06:00 GMT | Germany. Producer Price Index (YoY)
2013-07-19 08:30 GMT | UK. Public Sector Net Borrowing
2013-07-19 12:30 GMT | Canada. Consumer Price Index (YoY)
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-19 04:48 GMT | GBP/USD surge capped below 1.5250
2013-07-19 04:08 GMT | EUR/USD knocking on the door of short-term break above 1.3205
2013-07-19 03:13 GMT | USD/JPY touches the 100 handle on Yen strength
2013-07-19 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD supported on broad USD weakness
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31503 LOW 1.30891 BID 1.31386 ASK 1.31391 CHANGE 0.23% TIME 08 : 26:35
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Fresh high offers a key resistive barrier at 1.3151 (R1). Subsequently loss here might create upside momentum and drive market price towards to our initial targets at 1.3179 (R2) and 1.3204 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: Activation of bearish forces is possible below the support level at 1.3112 (S1). Clearance here would suggest next interim target at 1.3086 (S2) and if the price holds its momentum we would suggest final aim at 1.3060 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3151, 1.3179, 1.3204
Support Levels: 1.3112, 1.3086, 1.3060
----------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52504 LOW 1.51963 BID 1.52323 ASK 1.52327 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 26:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Medium term bias remains positive however further market strengthening is required to clear resistive barrier at 1.5252 (R1). Next visible resistances are seen at 1.5281 (R2) and 1.5311 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, retracement formation might occur below the immediate support level at 1.5194 (S1). Clearance here would enable our next intraday targets at 1.5162(S2) and 1.5130 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5252, 1.5281, 1.5311
Support Levels: 1.5194, 1.5162, 1.5130
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USDJPY :
HIGH 100.866 LOW 99.809 BID 100.063 ASK 100.068 CHANGE -0.36% TIME 08 : 26:36
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Downward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Possibility of upwards action is seen above the next resistance level at 100.22 (R1). Clearance here is required to let the price achieve our higher intraday targets at 100.41 (R2) and 100.61 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other side, bearish market sentiment could be created if the price manages to overcome our next support level at 99.80 (S1). A violation here might call for a run towards to lower targets at 99.62 (S2) and 99.43 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.22, 100.41, 100.61
Support Levels: 99.80, 99.62, 99.43
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Portugal president Aníbal Cavaco Silva on Sunday supported the current coalition government, saying they should stay till end of the term, ending weeks of political crisis in the country, which had led international actors to even threaten the country's €78 billion international bailout. "As the national salvation compromise was impossible to achieve, I consider that the best alternative solution is for the present government to remain in its functions, with reinforced guarantees of cohesion and solidity of the coalition, until the end of its term (in 2015)" Mr. Cavaco said. Further headlines were provided by Bloomberg, with Cavaco saying he "laments talks on ‘National salvation’ agreement failed to produce results", and that "agreement will eventually be imposed by reality in future."
Session in the Asia-Pacific to start the week opened with an early move higher in Yen that soon corrected to break even before Tokyo started trading, but then as soon as traders hit the floor the Yen rose again to as high as 99.57 of the USD/JPY pair. The Yen move became in broad USD weakness following Japan PM Abe's upper house win, taking EUR/USD to session highs at 1.3170, AUD/USD to 0.9228, and Cable to 1.5298. Nikkei index opened in the 14750 region but soon eased to break even shy of 14600. Gold and Silver broke higher above key $1300 resistance in case of Gold, while Oil remained above the $108 handle. Local share markets traded mixed with China mainland and Japan in the negative, while Australia and Korea still in the positive.
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FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-07-22 07:00 GMT | Stitzerland. Monthly Statistical Bulletin (Jul)
2013-07-22 12:30 GMT | USA. Chicago Fed National Activity Index (Jun)
2013-07-22 14:00 GMT | USA. Existing Home Sales Change (Jun)
2013-07-22 15:30 GMT | USA. 6-Month Bill Auction
FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-22 04:53 GMT | AUD/USD, 0.93 to mark a cap in the recovery - BBH
2013-07-22 04:47 GMT | GBP/USD capped below 1.53 ahead of London
2013-07-22 04:45 GMT | AUD/JPY to peak at 94.00 in September - NAB
2013-07-22 04:33 GMT | EUR/USD holding gains above 1.3150
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.31694 LOW 1.31329 BID 1.31529 ASK 1.31534 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 19:28
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Apparently market sentiment is positive for the EURUSD as both moving averages are pointing up. Clearance of our resistance at 1.3178 (R1) would clear the way for an upside penetration towards to next visible targets at 1.3201 (R2) and 1.3224 (R3). Downwards scenario: Prolonged movement below the supportive measure at 1.3130 (S1) is required to activate downtrend expansion. Next aim on the way would be mark at 1.3105 (S2) and then final target could be met at 1.3081 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3178, 1.3201, 1.3224
Support Levels: 1.3130, 1.3105, 1.3081
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.52971 LOW 1.52577 BID 1.52831 ASK 1.52842 CHANGE 0.13% TIME 08 : 19:29
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Low
Upwards scenario: Further uptrend development is limited now to the next resistive measure at 1.5311 (R1). Clearance here is required to enable our interim target at 1.5341 (R2) en route to final aim at 1.5372 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, depreciation below the technically important support level at 1.5246 (S1) might lead to the correction formation on the short-term perspective. Possible targets lies at 1.5213 (S2) and 1.5182 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5311, 1.5341, 1.5372
Support Levels: 1.5246, 1.5213, 1.5182
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USDJPY :
HIGH 100.62 LOW 99.608 BID 100.041 ASK 100.044 CHANGE -0.6% TIME 08 : 19:29
Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the resistance level at 100.18 (R1). Clearance here is required to validate next interim target at 100.36 (R2) and any further rise would then be targeting mark at 100.55 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the downside, support level at 99.80 (S1) limits possible downtrend expansion. Break here is required to enable lower target at 99.63 (S2) en route to final aim at 99.45 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 100.18, 100.36, 100.55
Support Levels: 99.80, 99.63, 99.45
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Bank of Japan stands ready to inject further stimulus
The Bank of Japan is prepared to provide further easing to the economy should signs fail to emerge about an economic recovery, including an inflation mandate of 2% in the short-run. According to BoJ board member Takehiro Sato, more stimulus is a real possibility if the economy's recovery is threatened, naming a few risks such as slower-than-expected growth in China. "A high degree of uncertainty remains concerning the global economy, and I see risks to the economic outlook as somewhat tilted to the downside," Sato said.
"The BOJ does not exclude the implementation of additional measures and will not hesitate to fine-tune its policies flexibly when unexpected tail risks materialise," Sato added in a speech to business leaders in Fukushima, northeastern Japan. Sato also said the 2% inflation should be seen as a flexible target, subject to change in the 2-year projections, a timeframe which had been repeatedly mentioned by BOJ governor Haruhiko Kuroda in past meetings. "If the inflation rate is projected to stabilise within a certain range, with the median being 2 per cent price growth, the main objective of the bank's policy will have been fulfilled," Sato said. Mr Sato, an economist who joined the BOJ board last year, was nonetheless more optimistic about japan’s economy from a year earlier, saying a recovery was "coming into view", presenting a "window of opportunity" to overcome deflation.
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FOREX NEWS :
2013-07-23 03:27 GMT | EUR/JPY back around 131.50 on Euro strength
2013-07-23 02:55 GMT | AUD/USD struggling above 0.9280 highs
2013-07-23 02:42 GMT | GBP/USD conquers 1.5304 resistance – now targeting key level at 1.5432
2013-07-23 02:16 GMT | EUR/USD faces risk for extension into 1.20/1.18 - JPMorgan
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EURUSD :
HIGH 1.32072 LOW 1.31827 BID 1.31970 ASK 1.31975 CHANGE 0.09% TIME 08 : 37:12
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis
Upwards scenario: Yesterday high at 1.3217 (R1) limits further uptrend establishment. Break here is required to enable next interim target at 1.3243 (R2) en route towards to final aim for today at 1.3268 (R3). Downwards scenario: Depreciation below the support level at 1.3177 (S1) would suggest next intraday target at 1.3152 (S2) and any further weakening would then be limited to final support level at 1.3126 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.3217, 1.3243, 1.3268
Support Levels: 1.3177, 1.3152, 1.3126
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GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.53767 LOW 1.53548 BID 1.53667 ASK 1.53673 CHANGE 0.05% TIME 08 : 37:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: Fractal level at 1.5385 (R1) offers next resistive barrier. Penetration above that mark might trigger upside pressure and expose our next resistive mean at 1.5415 (R2) en route towards to final target for today at 1.5445 (R3). Downwards scenario: Though, possibility of correction is high. Price devaluation below the support at 1.5345 (S1) would initiate bearish pressure. On the way our next interim support at 1.5315 (S2) en route to final target at 1.5285 (S3).
Resistance Levels: 1.5385, 1.5415, 1.5445
Support Levels: 1.5345, 1.5315, 1.5285
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USDJPY :
HIGH 99.68 LOW 99.143 BID 99.465 ASK 99.467 CHANGE -0.2% TIME 08 : 37:13
OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Down trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : Medium
Upwards scenario: USDJPY remains under the consolidation mode after the initial uptrend formation. Strengthening above the next resistive structure at 99.70 (R1) might activate medium-term bullish pressure and expose our intraday targets at 99.86 (R2) and 100.02 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further downside expansion might face next hurdle at 99.28 (S1). Break here is liable to initiate stronger bearish pressure and validate our immediate targets at 99.13 (S2) and 98.98 (S3) in potential.
Resistance Levels: 99.70, 99.86, 100.02
Support Levels: 99.28, 99.13, 98.98
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( [url=http://www.fxcc.com] http://www.fxcc.com [/url] )
Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Jul 08 2013
